中国南方電力網地域におけるLMDI-Tapio分析とシナリオベースの炭素排出削減経路：比較参照地域からの示唆

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:地域電力網を統合システムとして扱う分解・デカップリング・シナリオ統合手法の応用例として参考になる。

🏢実務担当者:電力セクターの移行計画やScope 2削減戦略、地域間調達・連系の検討に活用できる。

🏛政策担当者:地域間調整・運用・規制整合が化石燃料電源の実置換を促す可能性を示唆する。

Decarbonizing regional power systems is essential for achieving China’s carbon-neutrality targets. However, analyses conducted only at the national or provincial level may overlook the functional interdependence among electricity demand, generation structure, and cross-provincial power transfers. This study examines the southern power grid region in China, which includes Guangdong, Guangxi, Guizhou, Yunnan, and Hainan, as an integrated electricity system rather than as a simple geographical or administrative unit. This region provides a useful case because it combines energy-intensive coastal demand centers with inland provinces that are rich in hydropower and renewable energy resources. It therefore allows an assessment of whether regional grid integration can support the decoupling of economic growth from electricity-sector carbon emissions. Using data from 2013 to 2021, this study develops a sequential analytical framework that combines decomposition analysis, decoupling assessment, and constrained scenario modelling. The decomposition–decoupling results indicate that the southern power grid region remained mainly in a weak decoupling state during the study period. Although improvements in electricity efficiency and changes in the generation structure contributed to emission reduction, their effects were partly offset by rapid economic growth and continued reliance on fossil-fuel power generation. In the Region A decomposition dataset, several strong-decoupling years coincided with declines in the fossil-fuel power generation ratio. Scenario projections show that, under the Normal-scenario assumptions, electricity-sector carbon emissions in the southern power grid region may peak around 2036. Under a more stringent decarbonization pathway aimed at achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, the peak could be advanced to 2033, with a projected peak of approximately 599.9 Mt, 25.4% below the Normal-scenario peak of approximately 803.7 Mt. These findings suggest that, alongside renewable-capacity expansion, policy strategies for the southern power grid region could place greater emphasis on enabling the actual displacement of fossil-fuel generation. Cross-provincial coordination, dispatch arrangements, and regulatory alignment may support this process, although the effects of these individual policy measures are not separately estimated in this study.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.1007/s12053-026-10471-0first seen 2026-09-26 04:48:31
• primary_source https://doi.org/10.1007/s12053-026-10471-0first seen 2026-09-27 23:53:55