急速に発展する熱帯島嶼における食料システムの炭素中立化
Transforming food systems toward carbon neutrality on a rapidly developing tropical island (原題)
Zichen Li, 白兆海, Xiaoyang Shan, Bo Hu, Lin Ma, Hongwei Zhao
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
海南島の食料システムを1952〜2020年のLCAで評価し、正味炭素吸収源から主要排出源へ転換したことを示した。シナリオ分析により、技術的対策と輸出志向から地域自給への構造転換を組み合わせることで、2060年までに大幅な正味吸収を達成可能と示す。
English
Using LCA and scenario analysis, this study quantifies Hainan Island's food system emissions from 1952-2020, showing a shift from carbon sink to source. It finds that combining technological optimization with a structural shift toward regional self-sufficiency could turn the food system into a net carbon sink by 2060, reducing net emissions by 20.33 Mt CO2 eq relative to BAU.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本の食料システムや島嶼地域の脱炭素戦略に示唆を与える。特に、輸出志向農業の構造転換と技術的対策の組み合わせが重要であり、地域の特性に応じた政策設計の参考となる。
In the global GX context
This study provides a model for assessing food system decarbonization in tropical island contexts, relevant to global climate mitigation efforts. It highlights the need for integrated technological and structural interventions, offering insights for regions with similar agricultural profiles.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a comprehensive LCA framework and scenario analysis for food system carbon neutrality, useful for similar studies.
🏢実務担当者:Offers insights into how agricultural practices and trade policies can be adjusted to reduce emissions and enhance carbon sequestration.
🏛政策担当者:Demonstrates that government management alone is insufficient; structural changes and technological investments are needed to achieve deep mitigation.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Tropical islands are highly vulnerable to climate change, yet their food systems are increasingly contributing to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Here, we quantify long-term emissions and carbon sequestration of the food system on Hainan Island using a life cycle assessment (LCA) framework covering 1952–2020, together with scenario projections to 2060. We find that Hainan Island’s food system shifted from a net carbon sink to a major emission source over the past seven decades, with gross emissions rising from 3.29 Mt CO 2 eq in 1952 to 15.13 Mt CO 2 eq in 2020, accounting for approximately 35% of the island’s total emissions. This transition was driven primarily by fertilizer-intensive tropical crop production, aquaculture expansion, and export-oriented agriculture. Scenario analysis shows that government management alone cannot deliver deep mitigation, whereas combining technological optimization with a structural shift from export-oriented production toward regional self-sufficiency could convert the food system into a substantial net carbon sink. Under this transformation scenario, the food system could achieve an absolute net sequestration of 13.55 Mt CO 2 eq by 2060, corresponding to a 20.33 Mt CO 2 eq reduction in net emissions relative to the BAU scenario. Our findings demonstrate that food systems on tropical islands can play a pivotal role in achieving carbon neutrality through coordinated technological, structural, and trade-related interventions.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1007/s44246-026-00298-wfirst seen 2026-08-28 04:40:10
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