Assessing the Susceptibility of Water Availability Due To Climate Change in China
中国における気候変動による水利用可能性の脆弱性評価 (AI 翻訳)
Qichen Wang, Fubo Zhao, Wenbo Shi, Xi Wang, Yinuo Shan, Qiang Li, Dengfeng Liu, Jun Du, Xiongpeng Tang, Yiping Wu
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、中国341の地域を対象に、低排出・高排出シナリオ下での水利用可能性の変化をバディコフレームワークを用いて評価した。結果、感受性の高い地域は2020年から2100年にかけて減少する傾向にあるが、水資源が持続的に減少する地域も存在し、地域特有の適応戦略が必要であることを示した。
English
This study evaluates changes in water availability across 341 prefectures in China under low- and high-emission scenarios using a Budyko framework. It finds that susceptible regions are projected to decrease from 2020 to 2100, but many prefectures experience persistent water resource decline, highlighting the need for region-specific adaptation strategies.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
中国の水資源脆弱性評価手法は、日本の水資源管理にも応用可能。気候変動適応策の地域特化の重要性を示唆。
In the global GX context
This study provides a comprehensive assessment of water availability susceptibility at a fine administrative scale, offering insights for regional climate adaptation planning globally.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:The Budyko framework and spatiotemporal analysis methods can be applied to other regions for water resource vulnerability assessment.
🏢実務担当者:Water resource managers can use the identification of persistently declining water availability areas for targeted adaptation.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the need for region-specific water management strategies in climate change adaptation plans.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Abstract Climate change has worsened water deficits worldwide, posing a particular challenge for water‐stressed countries like China. Quantifying the dependence of water availability on climate change is crucial for effective mitigation and adaptation, yet such assessments have rarely been conducted at the administrative‐unit level. The aim of this study is to: (a) employ a parsimonious Budyko framework to evaluate changes in water availability across 341 prefectures in China under low‐ (SSP126) and high‐emission (SSP585) scenarios, and (b) assess the respective roles of changes in precipitation (ΔP) and potential evapotranspiration (ΔPET) in driving the shifts of susceptibility regimes. Results indicate that the number of susceptible prefectures (based on static parameter ω) are projected to gradually decrease from 2020 to 2100, dropping from 45.2% (46.9%) historically to future 26.1% (18.2%) under low‐emission (high‐emission) scenarios, while those based on time‐varying ω decrease from 46.3% (49.6%) to 27.9% (31.7%). This decreasing susceptibility trend is mainly driven by ΔP, although the influence of ΔPET is increasing under future warming scenarios. We also identify numerous prefectures where water resources persistently decrease under both climate scenarios, which are unevenly distributed across China. This highlights the need for region‐specific strategies in future water resource management to address the localized challenges posed by climate change. This study provides valuable information for formulating long‐term mitigation strategies regarding water resources management with changing climate.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ef006119first seen 2026-07-23 05:29:56
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