中国石油化学産業の2030年までの低炭素発展の技術経路、排出削減ポテンシャル、および便益評価
Technical pathways, emission reduction potential, and benefit assessment of low-carbon development in China's petrochemical industry by 2030 (原題)
Wei Pei, Chao Zhang, Tong Wang, Bo Liu, Shaolin He, Yang Song, Tianyi Sun
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
中国の石油化学産業のCO2排出量は4.7億トン（全国の約4%）に達するが、2030年のカーボンピーク達成に向けた具体的な政策目標や実施戦略は不明確である。本研究は、排出源削減、プロセス最適化、CCUSの3つの技術経路を体系的に分析し、2023年基準データに基づく技術普及シナリオ（25%、50%、75%、100%）を構築した。その結果、50%普及シナリオで産業全体のCO2排出量はほぼピークに達し、SO2とNOxの排出削減や経済的便益ももたらすことが示された。さらに、成分指向精製、廃熱利用、デジタル連携運営が排出削減の約60%に寄与し、政策提言も提示している。
English
China's petrochemical industry emits 470 Mt CO2 (about 4% of national total), yet lacks explicit policy targets for the 2030 carbon peak. This study systematically analyzes three technical routes—source reduction, process optimization, and CCUS—and constructs diffusion scenarios (25-100%) based on 2023 data. Results show that a 50% diffusion rate enables the industry to roughly peak emissions by 2030, with co-benefits of SO2 and NOx reductions and economic gains. Key pathways include component-oriented refining, waste heat utilization, and digital operations, contributing ~60% of reduction. Policy recommendations are provided.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
中国の石油化学産業の低炭素化は、日本の化学産業の脱炭素戦略にも示唆を与える。特に、成分指向精製や廃熱利用などの技術経路の定量評価は、日本のSSBJ開示や移行計画策定において参考になる。また、炭素市場統合や金融支援などの政策提言は、日本のGX政策との比較検討に有用。
In the global GX context
This study provides a rigorous techno-economic assessment of decarbonization pathways for a hard-to-abate sector, offering a model for transition planning that aligns with global disclosure frameworks like TCFD and ISSB. The scenario analysis and policy recommendations are relevant for international investors and regulators assessing transition risks in the petrochemical industry. The co-benefit quantification (SO2, NOx, economic gains) strengthens the business case for decarbonization, supporting transition finance decisions.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a comprehensive scenario analysis of technical routes and their emission reduction potentials in a major emitting sector, useful for benchmarking decarbonization models.
🏢実務担当者:Offers actionable technical pathways and cost-benefit insights for petrochemical companies planning low-carbon transitions and aligning with disclosure requirements.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the need for explicit industry-specific targets and provides evidence for policy instruments like carbon market integration and financial support.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from China's petrochemical sector reached 470 Mt, accounting for roughly 4% of the nation's total. However, there remain little explicit industry-specific policy targets or publicly disclosed implementation strategies outlining how the sector can meet the 2030 carbon peak commitment. This study provides technical support and decision-making references for the low-carbon transformation of China petrochemical industry, offering a feasible path to balance industrial growth, emission reduction targets, and economic benefits over the next five years. Three technical routes — source emission reduction, process optimization, and CCUS — are systematically analyzed, with an in-depth discussion of the techno-economic feasibility of each route. Based on 2023 baseline data, different technical diffusion scenarios (25%, 50%, 75% and 100%) on emission reduction are constructed. The results show that with the implementation of the proposed technical measures, the industry's CO 2 emissions could be reduced by 11.1%, 20.6%, 29.9% and 38.0% respectively. After offsetting the 21.5% carbon growth driven by the “fuel-to-chemical” transition, overall carbon emissions would rise by 10.4%, 0.9%, and decline by 8.5%, and 16.5% in sequence by 2030, indicating the industry can roughly achieve its carbon peaking goal by 2030 under the 50% diffusion rate scenario. Meanwhile, carbon reduction could synergistically decrease the emissions SO 2 and NO x by 1.14 Mt/a and 0.99 Mt/a, respectively, and generate a benefit of 7.0 billion CNY as well, under the peaking scenario. It is also found that three pathways—component-oriented refining, waste heat utilization, and digitally coupled operations—contribute about 60% to emission reduction, while ethylene feedstock light-weighting, component-type refining, and hydrogen system optimization yield the highest carbon reduction benefits per tonne. Finally, with respect to the dual carbon goals for the petrochemical industry, policy recommendations are proposed, including industrial structure adjustment, advanced technology promotion, carbon market integration, financial support, and encourage innovation.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eesus.2026.100100first seen 2026-08-27 05:01:44
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