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脱炭素経路のバランス：リンクモデリングアプローチによるEUエネルギーシステムの脱炭素化に対する炭素価格戦略の影響の比較分析

Balancing decarbonisation pathways: a comparative analysis of the effects of carbon pricing strategies on the decarbonisation of the EU energy system via a linked modelling approach. (原題)

Ilaria Perissi, Davide Natalini, Enric Alcover, Jordi Solé Ollé

Environmental Research: Energy📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-08-18#炭素価格Origin: EU対象セクター: power
DOI: 10.1088/2753-3751/ae9b0f
原典: https://doi.org/10.1088/2753-3751/ae9b0f
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🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本研究は、システムダイナミクスに基づく統合評価モデル（pymedeas）と電力市場のエージェントベースモデル（TaxvsETS ABM）をリンクさせ、EUの脱炭素化経路を制約条件として炭素税と排出権取引（ETS）の効果を比較した。結果、同等の政策厳格性の下でも炭素税の方が脱炭素スピード、累積排出削減、投資効率で優れることを示した。ハイブリッドモデリングの有用性も実証。

English

This study links a system dynamics-based integrated assessment model (pymedeas) with an agent-based electricity market model (TaxvsETS ABM) to compare carbon taxes and emissions trading under realistic EU decarbonisation pathways. Results show carbon taxes outperform ETS in decarbonisation speed, cumulative emissions reductions, and investment efficiency under equivalent policy stringency. Demonstrates value of hybrid modelling for policy evaluation.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本のGX政策では、炭素価格の導入が議論されており、本研究成果は炭素税と排出量取引の効果比較のエビデンスとして参考になる。特に、SSBJ開示や投資家対応において、政策リスク評価に活用できる。

In the global GX context

This paper provides robust evidence on carbon pricing effectiveness, relevant to global policy debates on carbon taxes vs. ETS. It offers a hybrid modelling approach that can inform transition finance and climate disclosure scenarios, aligning with ISSB and TCFD frameworks.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Provides a novel linked modelling framework for comparing carbon pricing policies, useful for further research on policy design and energy system transitions.

🏢実務担当者:Offers insights into carbon pricing impacts on energy investments, useful for corporate strategy under different policy scenarios.

🏛政策担当者:Informs carbon pricing policy design by showing carbon taxes may be more effective than ETS under equivalent stringency, with governance considerations.

📄 Abstract（原文）

Abstract Achieving the European Union’s decarbonisation goals while safeguarding a reliable energy transition presents a complex policy challenge. This paper addresses this challenge through an integrated modelling approach that combines a system dynamics-based Integrated Assessment Model, pymedeas, with an agent-based model of the electricity market, TaxvsETS ABM. The two models are linked through a one-way transfer of information, whereby a realistic EU decarbonisation pathway derived from pymedeas2 is used to constrain the TaxvsETS ABM, allowing assessment of whether the faster decarbonisation achieved by Carbon Taxes remains robust under a realistic ETS cap and an equivalent carbon price. The linked framework combines decarbonisation pathway with firms' adaptive investment behaviours, enabling the comparison of alternative carbon pricing policies under empirically informed transition conditions. Results suggest that even when the ETS is calibrated using a realistic decarbonisation pathway derived from the integrated assessment model and compared under equivalent policy stringency, carbon taxes continue to outperform emissions trading schemes in terms of decarbonisation speed, cumulative emissions reductions, and investment efficiency. However, broader governance and political economy considerations also influence the feasibility and equity of implementation. This study further demonstrates the value of hybrid modelling frameworks in supporting the evaluation of alternative carbon pricing policies within complex socio-technical systems.


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