排出量会計と水素生産：現在の課題と将来のグローバルシナリオ

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🔬研究者:Scope 3カテゴリ11の長期シナリオ統合手法と水素生産経路別排出係数の定量分析を参考にできる。

🏢実務担当者:水素対応機器の使用段階排出をIEAシナリオで動的に評価する手法を、Scope 3開示や移行計画に活用できる。

🏛政策担当者:低排出水素の供給不足と政策不確実性がScope 3報告に与える影響を踏まえ、水素政策と開示制度の連携を検討すべき。

In 2023, global demand for hydrogen reached approximately 97 million tons; however, low emission production remains marginal (< 1 Mt), despite growing by ab. 10% year-on-year. According to the IEA’s Global Hydrogen Review 2024, announced projects suggested a potential of ab. 49 Mt/year of low-emission hydrogen by 2030, but recent updates estimate realistic production at around 37 Mt/year due to delays, cancellations and political uncertainty. Supply is currently dominated by hydrogen produced from fossil fuels without carbon capture, while sectors such as refining and chemicals continue to be the main uses; new applications are still limited but are expanding, especially where support policies are more extensive. Electrolysis capacity (that could leverage electricity produced by renewable) installed to date is modest (ab. 1.4 GW at the end of 2023), but strong expansion is expected (pipeline for ab. 520 GW announced for 2030), although only a small fraction of projects has reached final investment decision (FID) or are under construction. Companies providing hydrogen ready equipment and subject to Scope 3 Category 11 reporting, must cope with two major challenges: the limited short-term availability of low-emission hydrogen to sustain the energy transition, and the coexistence of multiple hydrogen production pathways, each characterized by specific emission factors and market shares. Since the GHG Protocol requires Scope 3 Category 11 accounting over the entire lifetime of the equipment, use-phase emissions are highly sensitive to long-term uncertainties related to hydrogen availability and evolving production mixes over the next 20 years or more. This work explores methodologies that integrate key scenarios developed by the International Energy Agency (IEA) (STEPS, APS, NZE) with the GHG Protocol Scope 3 Category 11 guidelines to link use-phase emissions to forward-looking energy scenarios. The objective is twofold: first, to quantitatively estimate the environmental impact of producing hydrogen under different technological, geographic and temporal configurations, identifying the most effective levers for emission reduction along the production chain; second, to incorporate a dynamic modelling of the future electricity mix (based on IEA projections of RES penetration) in order to simulate the progressive decarbonization of electrolysis over time. The analysis also compares hydrogen emissions with those of the conventional natural gas, highlighting the urgency of accelerating the transition to low-emission hydrogen on a global scale.

• semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.1115/gt2026-178950first seen 2026-10-22 05:22:18 · last seen 2026-11-06 05:16:27