経済活動から物質制約へ：マクロ経済モデルと動的ストック・フロー分析の連結

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:IAMと物質フロー分析を連結するモデリング手法として、重要鉱物制約下の脱炭素経路研究に有用。

🏢実務担当者:調達リスクや移行計画の物理的制約を評価する際、素材需給・リサイクル前提の精緻化に活用できる。

🏛政策担当者:重要鉱物の供給制約を織り込んだ産業・資源政策と脱炭素シナリオの整合を検討する材料になる。

Macroeconomic and integrated assessment models are widely used to evaluate trade, climate and industrial policies, but they are generally not designed to ensure the physical consistency of material flows. This limitation is particularly relevant for low-carbon transitions, where technology deployment depends on critical raw materials, globally fragmented supply chains, recycling potentials and end-of-life dynamics. Even when input-output and CGE databases are enhanced with additional sectors for critical raw materials and clean technology manufacturing, sectoral detail alone is insufficient to represent technology stocks, material balances, capacity vintages, recycling flows or mineral supply constraints. This paper presents ongoing work from the ENTICE project on linking macroeconomic models with dynamic physical stock-flow models. The objective is to develop a flexible model-linking framework that can translate outputs from macroeconomic and IAM-CGE models, such as sectoral activity, final demand, trade flows, technology deployment and energy-service demand, into physical indicators of material demand, extraction, refining, recycling and supply-chain exposure. The approach builds on DYNERIO, a Dynamic Extraction and Recycling Input-Output framework designed to assess critical material demand in global energy transition scenarios. The proposed framework focuses on refined physical coupling rather than static material multipliers. Macroeconomic model outputs are passed through a harmonisation layer that maps economic sectors to technologies, materials and regions. A dynamic physical module then represents technology stock evolution, annual capacity additions and retirements, material intensities, end-of-life flows, recycling potentials and primary material requirements. The framework is illustrated through an application to copper in low-carbon electrification, showing how macroeconomic decarbonisation scenarios can be translated into indicators of material demand, recycling availability, primary extraction needs and trade-related exposure. The paper contributes to more physically grounded IAM-based assessment of critical materials, recycling potentials and supply-chain risks in low-carbon transitions.

• Zenodo https://zenodo.org/records/24158927first seen 2026-11-13 04:14:17