中国における再生可能エネルギー・インテリジェント製造投資と地域経済発展：低炭素転換の実践からの証拠

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:空間計量・閾値モデルで再エネ投資と製造投資の相乗効果を識別する実証設計は、地域GX政策評価の手法参照になる。

🏢実務担当者:中国拠点を持つ企業にとって、地域の低炭素政策強度が投資インセンティブと生産性効果を左右する点は立地・設備投資判断の参考になる。

🏛政策担当者:再エネ投資支援と製造業高度化支援を組み合わせ、政策強度を一定水準以上に保つことが地域経済と炭素削減の両立に効くという示唆。

China’s dual commitment to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 and peak emissions before 2030 has catalysed an unprecedented co-deployment of renewable energy investment and intelligent manufacturing systems across its provincial landscape. Despite the scale and strategic significance of this parallel transition, the joint macroeconomic and spatial consequences of combining renewable energy investment with intelligent manufacturing investment have not been rigorously analyzed in a unified empirical framework. This paper fills that gap by delivering a comprehensive empirical analysis of how renewable energy investment (REI) and intelligent manufacturing investment (IMI) interact to shape regional economic development, green total factor productivity, industrial structure upgrading, and carbon emission intensity across 30 Chinese provinces from 2005 to 2022. Employing a dynamic spatial Durbin model, the pooled mean group estimator, system GMM, and a double-threshold panel regression, the study derives four principal findings. First, REI and IMI each exert significant positive direct effects on provincial GDP per capita growth, with coefficients of 0.34 and 0.29 respectively, and these effects are amplified by a statistically robust synergy term (0.18, p < 0.01). Second, both investment types generate meaningful spatial spillovers, with the combined indirect effect accounting for approximately 35 percent of the total growth impact. Third, a double-threshold regression conditioned on low-carbon policy intensity identifies two structural breaks at policy intensity values of 0.35 and 0.68, revealing that the joint RE-IM growth effect is strongest under high policy intensity regimes. Fourth, sigma-convergence analysis confirms that provinces with above-median RE-IM composite indices exhibit income convergence rates approximately 1.6 percentage points per year faster than below-median provinces, establishing the dual investment strategy as a force for regional equity. Green TFP decompositions attribute approximately 60 percent of frontier-shift productivity gains in high-intensity provinces to the RE-IM technology synergy. These findings provide actionable evidence for the design of China’s coordinated low-carbon industrial policy, spatial energy planning, and regional equalization strategy.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biombioe.2026.110095first seen 2026-10-23 05:13:48 · last seen 2026-11-06 04:49:18