Net Present Value (NPV) Analysis of Solar Microgrids for Off-Grid Rural Schools in the Philippines, integrating Carbon Credit Valuation and Sensitivity Analysis
フィリピンのオフグリッド地方学校におけるソーラーマイクログリッドの正味現在価値（NPV）分析：炭素クレジット評価と感応度分析の統合 (AI 翻訳)
Ireneo G. Mateo
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究はフィリピンの5つのオフグリッド学校におけるソーラーマイクログリッドの経済性をNPV、炭素クレジット評価、感応度分析を用いて分析した。結果、すべてのサイトでNPVが負となり、現在の市場条件では経済的に成立しないことが確認された。炭素クレジットの収入はわずかであり、割引率と資本支出がプロジェクトの成否を左右する主要因である。政策介入の必要性が示唆されている。
English
This study analyzes the economic feasibility of solar microgrids for five off-grid schools in the Philippines using NPV, carbon credit valuation, and sensitivity analysis. Results show negative NPV across all sites, indicating that under current market conditions, standalone solar microgrids are not economically viable. Carbon credit revenue is insufficient to break even. The discount rate and CAPEX are critical factors. Policy interventions such as grants and low-interest financing are necessary.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本においても、離島や山間部での再生可能エネルギー導入は課題であり、本論文が示す「収益性ギャップ」の定量化手法は参考になる。特に炭素クレジットの限界効果を明らかにした点は、日本のJクレジット制度にも示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This paper provides empirical evidence on the viability gap of solar microgrids in developing island nations, which is relevant for global energy access and climate finance discussions. The sensitivity analysis on discount rates and CAPEX highlights key barriers for renewable energy deployment in off-grid contexts, informing international development banks and climate funds.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Methodological framework combining NPV, carbon credits, and sensitivity analysis for off-grid renewables.
🏢実務担当者:Notable for project developers and impact investors considering off-grid solar in developing countries.
🏛政策担当者:Demonstrates the need for subsidies or concessional financing to make off-grid solar viable.
📄 Abstract（原文）
This research investigates the economic feasibility of solar microgrid deployment in five remote off-grid educational facilities across the Philippines—spanning Regions XII, IVB, X, IX, and BARMM— utilizing a multi-criteria financial framework involving Net Present Value (NPV), carbon credit valuation, and sensitivity analysis. The study addresses the critical research gap in transitioning from diesel-dependent paradigms to decentralized renewable energy by quantifying the fiscal barriers to rural electrification. Baseline NPV results across all five sites yielded consistently negative values, confirming that under current market conditions and without external subsidies, standalone solar microgrids remain economically prohibitive for off-grid schools. While carbon credit integration offers a mechanism for quantifying environmental externalities, the current market valuation of P500/ton (approx. USD 8.50/ton) CO2 provides an annual revenue of only P704.3I to P1,408.61, which is an insufficient fiscal offset to achieve break-even points. Stochastic sensitivity analysis identifies the discount rate (8%-14%) and Capital Expenditure (CAPEX)as the most critical determinants of project viability. The findings underscore a systemic “viability gap” that necessitates strategic policy interventions, including grant-based funding, low-interest green financing, and community-led ownership models to bridge the divide between environmental necessity and financial sustainability in developing island nations.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202671204005/pdffirst seen 2026-06-14 04:28:30 · last seen 2026-06-14 04:38:09
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