時空間特性と生産・展開経路を考慮した風力発電の全球炭素削減効果の評価

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:Methodological framework for spatiotemporal LCA of renewables; useful for energy system modeling and carbon accounting research.

🏢実務担当者:Insights for optimizing wind power project siting and supply chain to maximize carbon credits and align with climate targets.

🏛政策担当者:Evidence for international coordination in wind power deployment and grid planning to enhance mitigation effectiveness.

As wind power capacity continues expanding, its carbon-reduction effectiveness increasingly hinges on the spatiotemporal alignment of production, deployment, and power systems. However, these dimensions are assessed separately, and the role of spatiotemporal interactions in shaping carbon mitigation benefits remains unclear. Here, we develop a spatiotemporal life cycle assessment framework and systematically evaluate the carbon mitigation benefits of global onshore wind power across historical (2014-2023) and future (2025-2060) periods. We show that global wind power achieved cumulative net carbon mitigation benefits of 3,690 Mt CO2e over 2014-2023, while carbon emissions accounted for 8.5% of the direct carbon mitigation benefits from fossil-fuel electricity displacement. Under counterfactual settings, the climate-priority deployment scenario (C3) increases cumulative mitigation to 53,711 ± 935 Mt CO2e by 2060, approximately 2.3 times that of the baseline deployment scenario (C1). The clean-oriented production scenario (M3) yields comparatively modest gains, reducing carbon emissions by approximately 14% relative to the baseline production scenario (M1). The spatially diversified production scenario (M2) achieves the lowest transportation emissions, with cumulative reductions of approximately 6% and approximately 24% relative to M1 and M3. Under the baseline and balanced deployment scenarios (C1/C2), annual net mitigation peaks around 2034 and then declines persistently. In some production-deployment combinations, it turns negative by 2060 due to grid decarbonization. Conversely, scenario C3 remains positive throughout 2025-2060. The work provides scientific evidence for enhancing the carbon mitigation effectiveness of wind power development and boosting climate benefits through international coordinated planning, alongside decision support for optimizing wind power deployment and supply chain configurations.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.20517/cf.2026.63first seen 2026-09-06 05:15:41
• primary_source https://doi.org/10.20517/cf.2026.63first seen 2026-09-14 00:28:24