Climate Risk and Sustainable Entrepreneurial Adaptation: Evidence From Cross‐Country Microdata

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🔬研究者:Demonstrates an interpretable ML pipeline (SHAP, PDP) for cross-country microdata on climate adaptation.

🏛政策担当者:Provides evidence for designing policies that support climate-adaptive entrepreneurship, including innovation and mission-driven incentives.

ABSTRACT Climate change is reshaping entrepreneurial ecosystems, yet evidence on individual‐level sustainability‐oriented adaptation remains scarce. This study examines how multidimensional climate risk predicts Sustainable Entrepreneurial Adaptation (SEA) using cross‐country microdata. By focusing on individual decision‐makers, we address a critical gap in the micro‐foundations of climate resilience. We integrate Global Entrepreneurship Monitor data with country‐level indicators (CPRI, ND‐GAIN, and Global Climate Risk Index). Employing probabilistic classifiers, including Logistic Regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, and Deep ANN interpreted through SHAP and Partial Dependence Plots, we identify dominant predictors and nonlinear interaction patterns. Results show that physical climate risk and national adaptive readiness are primary predictors of SEA, alongside innovation and prosocial motivation. Notably, innovation and mission‐driven motivation mitigate the adverse effects of severe climate risk. The findings identify entrepreneurs as key agents of climate action, underscoring the importance of policy frameworks integrating climate risk, institutional context, and innovation support to achieve sustainable development goals.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.71433first seen 2026-07-31 05:15:08