Is energy transition inflationary in Sub-Saharan Africa? Policy implications from panel quantile analyses
サブサハラアフリカにおけるエネルギー転換はインフレを引き起こすか？パネル分位分析からの政策的示唆 (AI 翻訳)
Pius Gamette, Atta Twumasi Dabone Junior
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は1990～2024年の46のサブサハラアフリカ諸国を対象に、エネルギー転換がインフレに与える不均一な影響を分位回帰で分析。再生可能エネルギー消費は中高インフレ層でCPIを押し上げる一方、高インフレ層ではGDPデフレーターを抑制する効果が見られた。ただしMMQRでは有意性が消失し、推定結果のモデル依存性が示唆される。政策立案者は柔軟でマクロ調整されたエネルギー政策を採用すべきと結論。
English
This study examines the heterogeneous impact of energy transition on inflation across 46 Sub-Saharan African countries (1990-2024) using quantile regression. Renewable energy consumption positively affects CPI at the 50th and 75th quantiles, and GDP deflator at lower quantiles, but negatively at the 90th quantile. However, these effects are not robust under Method of Moments Quantile regression, indicating model sensitivity. Policymakers should design flexible, macro-coordinated energy policies rather than assuming uniform inflationary effects.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
本論文は日本固有の文脈とは直接関係しないが、発展途上地域でのエネルギー転換のマクロ経済影響を定量分析しており、日本企業がアフリカ展開や国際的なカーボンオフセット事業を検討する際の参考情報となる。
In the global GX context
This paper contributes to the global GX discourse by providing empirical evidence on the inflationary consequences of energy transition in a developing region. It highlights the need for distribution-aware and estimator-robust policy design, which is relevant for international climate finance and just transition frameworks.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Quantile regression methodology for energy transition-inflation nexus; model sensitivity insights.
🏛政策担当者:Avoid one-size-fits-all energy transition policies; consider inflation heterogeneity across quantiles.
📄 Abstract（原文）
The high costs of clean technology and its associated mechanisms pose a significant obstacle to the global transition to cleaner energy, which aims to achieve carbon neutrality and improve environmental health, particularly in energy-poor regions such as sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Unlike previous studies, this study examines the heterogeneous impact of energy transition on inflation levels in 46 SSA countries from 1990 to 2024, using Quantile regression (QR) and Method of Moments Quantile regression (MMQR) as a robustness check. The Quantile technique reveals how shocks impact SSA economies differently across low, median and high inflation levels, which average-based methods cannot detect. The Quantile outcomes indicate that first, renewable energy consumption has a significant positive effect on inflation (proxied by Consumer Price Index (CPI)) at the 50th and 75th quantiles. Second, renewable energy consumption has a significant positive impact on inflation (proxied by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Deflator) at the 10th, 25th and 50th quantiles across the SSA region. On the contrary, renewable energy consumption has a significant negative effect on inflation (proxied by GDP Deflator) at the 90th quantile. However, these QR findings are not fully sustained under MMQR, where the estimated effects become statistically insignificant across the distribution, suggesting that the initial inflationary and deflationary results may be model sensitive. In view of the contrasting outcomes, by implication, policymakers in SSA should avoid assuming a uniform inflationary or deflationary effect of renewable energy transition and instead design flexible, macroeconomically coordinated energy policies that account for distributional conditions and estimator sensitivity before implementing large-scale reforms.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nxener.2026.100646first seen 2026-05-27 04:35:47
🔔 こうした論文の新着を逃したくない方は キーワードアラート に登録（無料・3キーワードまで）。
gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。 最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。