China’s Policy Responses to High Oil Prices: Balancing Macroeconomic Stability and Low-Carbon Transition
中国の高油価への政策対応：マクロ経済安定と低炭素移行のバランス (AI 翻訳)
Chenguang Li, Hong Li
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、18部門のCGEモデルとSBMモデルを結合し、2026年からの恒久的200%石油価格ショックを含む複数シナリオをシミュレーション。家計移転、価格規制、減税、エネルギー転換加速の4政策を評価し、組み合わせ政策がGDP損失を約70%削減し、2040年までに純利益をもたらすことを示す。極端なショック下の排出削減は「効率性の幻想」であると警告。
English
Coupling an 18-sector CGE model with a super-efficiency SBM model, this study simulates China's macroeconomic and green TFP responses to oil price shocks (200% permanent, P50, P100, P200_5Y) and evaluates four counterfactual policies. A combined policy package cuts 2026 GDP loss by ~70% and yields net gains by 2040, while warning that emission cuts under extreme shocks reflect an 'efficiency illusion'.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
中国の政策分析だが、日本でも原油価格ショックと脱炭素政策の両立は重要。SSBJ対応やエネルギー転換戦略に示唆。
In the global GX context
Provides rigorous CGE-based evidence on policy complementarities for oil price shocks and low-carbon transition, relevant to global energy security and transition finance debates.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:CGEとSBMの結合手法と政策パッケージの相乗効果の分析。
🏢実務担当者:エネルギー価格ショック時の政策対応と事業影響の理解。
🏛政策担当者:石油ショック下での政策パッケージ設計の実証的根拠。
📄 Abstract（原文）
International oil price volatility poses severe risks to macroeconomic stability and energy security, presenting complex policy challenges for China as it simultaneously pursues economic growth and a low-carbon transition. To bridge the gap between general equilibrium reallocation and transition quality, this study couples an 18-sector recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with a super-efficiency slacks-based measure (SBM) model to evaluate China’s macroeconomic path and green total factor productivity (GTFP) from 2023 to 2045. We simulate a permanent 200% international oil price shock starting from 2026—conceived as a tail-risk stress test—together with alternative shock scenarios of varying magnitude and persistence (P50, P100, and a five-year temporary variant of P200_5Y), and evaluate four counterfactual policies under the P200 stress-test condition: household transfers (Tran_HG), price regulation (P_REG), structural tax reduction (T_RED), and energy-transition acceleration (Delta_ENE). The shock triggers imported cost-push inflation and a regressive shift toward coal, with the long-run damage governed jointly by shock magnitude and persistence; since GTFP deteriorates monotonically with shock size, the apparent emission reductions under extreme shocks suggest a contraction-driven “efficiency illusion” rather than genuine green improvements. Individually, P_REG and T_RED are effective only as temporary shields, Tran_HG provides the strongest welfare protection but amplifies the high-carbon rebound, and Delta_ENE uniquely improves resilience and green efficiency simultaneously. Building on these results, a combined policy package (COM) is further designed and simulated, which exhibits positive complementarities; it cuts the 2026 GDP loss by about 70%, turns GDP and welfare losses into net gains by 2043 and 2040, respectively, and delivers favorable green-transition outcomes. These findings call for coordinated, phased policy packages in which fiscal space rotates from emergency shields to demand-side repair and, ultimately, to electrification-led structural transformation.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.3390/su18168221first seen 2026-08-13 05:04:22
🔔 こうした論文の新着を逃したくない方は キーワードアラート に登録（無料・3キーワードまで）。
gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。 最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。