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DECARBONIZATION OF SERBIAN DISTRICT HEATING SECTOR – THE ANALYSIS OF SCENARIOS

セルビアの地域暖房部門の脱炭素化 – シナリオ分析 (AI 翻訳)

D. Ivezić, Marija Živković, Dejan S. Stojanović, B. Pavlović

Zbornik radova2026-01-01#エネルギー転換Origin: Global
DOI: 10.46793/eep25.132i
原典: https://doi.org/10.46793/eep25.132i

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本論文は、2023年に再生可能エネルギーが2.2%のセルビアの地域暖房部門の脱炭素化を分析する。基本シナリオでは2050年に再生可能エネルギー比率54.3%、排出量49%削減、先進シナリオでは76.6%、74%削減を達成。投資額は11～16億ユーロと推定される。

English

This paper analyzes decarbonization scenarios for Serbia's district heating sector, which had only 2.2% renewable energy in 2023. The Basic Scenario achieves 54.3% RES share and 49% emission reduction by 2050; the Advanced Scenario reaches 76.6% and 74%. Required investments are estimated between €1.1 and €1.6 billion.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本でも地域熱供給の脱炭素化が進む中、セルビアの事例はバイオマス・ヒートポンプ・水素などの技術ミックスの参考となる。政策と資金の重要性を示す点で日本への示唆がある。

In the global GX context

This paper provides a detailed scenario analysis for district heating decarbonization in a European context, relevant to global discussions on heat transition and renewable integration. It highlights the need for coherent policy and financing, applicable to many regions.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Provides a scenario modeling framework for district heating decarbonization with specific technology pathways.

🏢実務担当者:Offers investment estimates and technology options (biomass, heat pumps, hydrogen) for district heating companies planning decarbonization.

🏛政策担当者:Demonstrates the impact of policy ambition on RES share and emission reductions, useful for energy strategy design.

📄 Abstract（原文）

This paper examines the decarbonization of Serbia’s district heating (DH) sector, which currently relies predominantly on fossil fuels, with renewable energy sources (RES) accounting for only 2.2% of heat production in 2023. Guided by Serbia’s Energy Strategy and National Energy and Climate Plan, two development pathways are analyzed: the Basic and the Advanced Scenario. The Basic Scenario anticipates gradual integration of biomass, heat pumps, and solar energy, leading to a 54.3% RES share and a 49% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The Advanced Scenario assumes stronger policy and financial support, enabling earlier adoption of biomethane, hydrogen, and electric boilers, achieving a 76.6% RES share and a 74% emission reduction by 2050. Required investments are estimated to be between 1.1 and €1.6 billion. The study emphasizes the need for coherent policy, technological innovation, and targeted financing to ensure a sustainable, low-carbon DH sector in Serbia.

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