政策関連代理指標からシナリオ空間最適化へ：中国陝西省における建築部門のカーボンニュートラル志向排出削減経路
From policy-related proxy indicators to scenario space optimization: Carbon-neutrality-oriented emission reduction pathways for the building sector in Shaanxi Province, China (原題)
Fuming Lei, Liuhui Meng, Zengfeng Yan, Yingjun Yue, Shanshan Yao, Pingan Ni
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
中国陝西省の建築部門を対象に、政策関連代理指標とRidge–STIRPAT推定、実行可能シナリオ空間構築、感度分析、段階的区間制約最適化を統合した枠組みを開発。2001〜2022年に排出量は25.83Mtから318.09Mtへ年平均13.73%増加し、素材生産・輸送が最大76.19%を占めた。鉄鋼消費が感度要因の60.23%を占め、制約シナリオでは2060年に2022年比48〜51%削減、拡張ストレステストでは67.92%削減が示された。素材需要管理、電力脱炭素、建築効率改善、建設ストック転換の協調が低排出経路の核心と結論。
English
This study develops an integrated framework combining policy-related proxy indicators, Ridge–STIRPAT estimation, feasible scenario-space construction, sensitivity analysis, and stage-wise interval-constrained optimization for the building sector in Shaanxi, China. Emissions rose from 25.83 MtCO2 in 2001 to 318.09 MtCO2 in 2022, with material production and transportation dominating at up to 76.19%. Steel consumption was the top sensitivity factor (60.23% Shapley effect). Constrained scenarios project 48–51% reduction by 2060 vs 2022, and expanded stress tests reach 67.92% reduction. Coordinated material-demand control, power decarbonization, building efficiency, and construction-stock transition are key.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
中国の地方省レベルでの建築部門脱炭素経路の定量分析は、日本の建築物省エネ法やCASBEE、ZEB普及政策、建設資材のScope 3管理を検討する上で参照価値がある。特に鉄鋼消費の感度が高い点は、日本企業の建設・不動産セクターのサプライチェーン排出管理に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This paper contributes to global building-sector decarbonization scholarship by integrating policy proxy indicators with scenario-space optimization, offering a replicable framework for subnational pathways. It aligns with TCFD/ISSB disclosure of Scope 3 building materials and supports transition finance for construction-stock transformation. The emphasis on steel as a dominant driver resonates with global embodied-carbon accounting efforts.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:サブナショナルな建築部門脱炭素経路の統合モデリング手法として、シナリオ空間最適化と感度分析の組み合わせを参考にできる。
🏢実務担当者:建設・不動産企業は、鉄鋼など素材効率と電力脱炭素の協調が長期的な排出削減に重要であることを自社Scope 3管理に活かせる。
🏛政策担当者:地方自治体の建築部門政策において、素材需要管理と電力システム脱炭素を組み合わせた段階的目標設定の必要性を示唆する。
📄 Abstract（原文）
With China's carbon-peaking target being progressively advanced, identifying key emission drivers and feasible reduction pathways in the building sector is essential for supporting the transition toward carbon neutrality. To address the limitations of conventional driver analysis and limited predefined scenarios, this study develops an integrated framework combining implementation-oriented policy-related proxy indicators, Ridge–STIRPAT estimation, feasible scenario-space construction, sensitivity analysis, and stage-wise interval-constrained optimization. Taking Shaanxi Province as a case study, the results show that building-sector carbon emissions increased from 25.83 MtCO 2 in 2001 to 318.09 MtCO 2 in 2022, with an average annual growth rate of 13.73%. Material production and transportation were the dominant sources, accounting for up to 76.19% of total emissions. Although carbon emission intensity declined from 9.23 to 2.39 tCO 2 /10 4 CNY, stable decoupling from economic growth was not achieved. Steel consumption was the dominant sensitivity factor, contributing 60.23% of the Shapley effect, followed by GDP, building electricity consumption, clean-heating proportion, and the electricity emission factor at 8.08%, 5.58%, 5.02%, and 3.02%, respectively. Under the constrained future scenario, median emissions rise to 338.74 MtCO 2 in 2030 and then decline to 164.54 MtCO 2 in 2060, corresponding to a reduction of approximately 48%–51% from 2022. Material-efficiency, power-decarbonization, building-operational-efficiency, and construction-stock-transition pathways achieve similar long-term outcomes. Under the Expanded stress-test scenario, the 2060 median falls to 85.59 MtCO 2 , while the screened high-implementation-potential pathways reach 102.03 MtCO 2 , representing a 67.92% reduction and retaining 92.93% of the original stress-test reduction. These findings highlight coordinated material-demand control, power-system decarbonization, building-energy-efficiency improvement, and construction-stock transition as the core of differentiated low-emission pathways.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2026.149456first seen 2026-09-15 04:38:19
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