チュニジアにおけるエネルギー・電力システムの長期発展シナリオ

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:オープンソースのエネルギーシステムモデル（GENeSYS-MOD/openTEPES）を新興国の長期脱炭素シナリオに適用する手法例として参考になる。

🏢実務担当者:北アフリカでの再エネ・系統・蓄電池・水素関連の事業機会や調達リスク評価の基礎情報として活用できる。

🏛政策担当者:新興国における再エネ大量導入時の系統柔軟性・蓄電池投資と規制調和の必要性を示す政策参考例となる。

This deliverable presents a comprehensive analysis of Tunisia’s energy and power systems, focusing on long-term development pathways, decarbonization, and enhanced energy access. The study, prepared under Work Package 9 of the OpenMod4Africa (OM4A) project, identifies challenges in Tunisia’s energy landscape, evaluates the potential of renewable energy, and provides actionable recommendations for policy, investment, and system planning. Tunisia’s energy system is characterized by a high reliance on natural gas, regional disparities in electricity access, and limited infrastructure in rural areas. Despite substantial progress in solar and wind energy integration, the country has not fully harnessed its renewable energy potential due to financial, technical, and institutional constraints. Addressing these challenges is critical to achieving Tunisia’s National Energy Strategy 2030-2035 targets and contributing to global climate objectives. The study applies advanced energy system modeling tools to evaluate alternative development scenarios. The GENeSYS-MOD model optimizes the national energy system by integrating demand projections, resource mapping, technology costs, and policy constraints. Complementary analyses with openTEPES are used to assess power grid reliability, operational flexibility, and cost optimization, focusing on renewable integration and storage deployment. The combined use of these models provides a robust framework for identifying viable decarbonization pathways. Key findings for Tunisia include: Renewable Energy Integration: Solar PV and wind can provide a significant share of electricity generation, particularly in regions with high solar irradiance and wind potential. Grid Modernization and Storage: Deployment of energy storage and modernization of transmission and distribution infrastructure are crucial to maintain system reliability and flexibility, especially under high renewable penetration. Transport Electrification: Electrification of urban transport systems in cities such as Tunis and Sfax can reduce fossil fuel dependency, improve air quality, and support decarbonization goals. Economic and Environmental Trade-offs: Investment in renewable energy and grid upgrades involves upfront costs but provides long-term benefits in emissions reduction, energy security, and socio-economic development. Policy and Investment Recommendations: Harmonization of regulatory frameworks, targeted public-private partnerships, and strategic investment in critical infrastructure are necessary to accelerate the energy transition. The study provides quantified scenario results, demonstrating that Tunisia can achieve a low-carbon, resilient, and cost-effective energy system by 2050. By leveraging its renewable energy potential and implementing strategic investments, Tunisia can simultaneously improve energy access, support economic growth, and contribute to global climate mitigation objectives. This deliverable serves as a strategic framework for long-term energy planning in Tunisia, providing decision-makers with technical insights and policy guidance to facilitate a sustainable energy transition.

• Zenodo https://zenodo.org/records/23497093first seen 2026-10-21 04:11:17 · last seen 2026-10-25 04:11:24