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インドネシアの脱炭素におけるCCS、移行ガス、規制の信頼性：補完性、ロックインリスク、ガバナンス優先順位に関するナラティブレビュー

CCS, Transition Gas, and Regulatory Credibility in Indonesia’s Decarbonization: A Narrative Review of Complementarity, Lock-In Risks, and Governance Priorities (原題)

Riska Ayu Fitri, Muh. Rifaan Ramdani, Dian Wijaya Kurniawidi, Kormil Saputra

Socio-Economic and Humanistic Aspects for Township and Industry📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-08-29#CCUSOrigin: Global対象セクター: power
DOI: 10.59535/sehati.v4i3.701
原典: https://doi.org/10.59535/sehati.v4i3.701
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🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

インドネシアのCCS規制と天然ガス投資の相互作用をレビューし、補完性は順序・部門適合・メタン管理・化石燃料ロックインの制限に依存すると論じる。CCSは削減困難な産業に有効だが、非効率な電力資産の延命には不適切。規制の信頼性が脱炭素の成否を左右する。

English

This narrative review examines Indonesia's CCS regulation and natural gas investment, arguing that complementarity depends on sequencing, sectoral fit, methane control, and limits on fossil lock-in. CCS is defensible for hard-to-abate industries but not for prolonging inefficient power assets. Regulatory credibility, not technological optimism, will determine success.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本はアジアCCUSネットワークやJCMを通じてインドネシアのCCS事業に関与しており、本レビューのガバナンス指摘は日本の技術輸出・資金協力の条件整理に示唆を与える。また、日本のCCS法整備や長期責任の議論とも共通点が多い。

In the global GX context

This review contributes to global CCS governance scholarship by proposing a sequenced hierarchy and emphasizing regulatory credibility, which is relevant for countries developing CCS frameworks under Article 6 and for investors assessing bankability.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Provides a structured framework for analyzing CCS complementarity and lock-in risks in emerging economies.

🏢実務担当者:Highlights governance and liability conditions needed for bankable CCS projects in Indonesia.

🏛政策担当者:Offers a sequenced governance hierarchy for integrating CCS, gas, and renewables in national decarbonization.

📄 Abstract（原文）

Indonesia is developing carbon capture and storage (CCS) regulation while simultaneously pursuing renewable electricity, carbon-market instruments, and continued natural-gas investment. The interaction among these choices is often described as complementary, but complementarity depends on sequencing, sectoral fit, methane control, and credible limits on fossil-fuel lock-in. This narrative review synthesizes international evidence on CCS performance, storage security, costs, residual emissions, and methane with Indonesia’s evolving legal architecture. CCS has a defensible role in hard-to-abate industrial processes and in managing concentrated carbon-dioxide streams where low-carbon substitutes remain limited. Its case is weaker when used to prolong inefficient power assets or delay available renewable and efficiency options. Natural gas can have lower life-cycle emissions than coal, yet its transitional value is conditional on low methane intensity, limited asset lifetime, operational flexibility, and consistency with declining carbon budgets. Indonesia’s Presidential Regulation No. 14/2024, Ministerial Regulations No. 2/2023 and No. 16/2024, renewable-power framework, and Presidential Regulation No. 110/2025 create important legal foundations. Nevertheless, bankable and socially legitimate deployment requires clearer source–sink planning, measurement and verification, long-term storage liability, methane standards, financial additionality, community participation, and rules preventing double counting. The review proposes a sequenced governance hierarchy: prioritize efficiency and renewable electricity; constrain gas to time-bound system functions; and allocate CCS to residual industrial emissions under high capture, monitoring, and liability standards. Regulatory credibility, rather than technological optimism alone, will determine whether CCS accelerates decarbonization or locks in fossil dependence.

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