西アジア紛争と海事への影響：紅海・ホルムズ海峡・スエズ運河の地政学およびブルーエコノミー分析

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🔬研究者:地政学リスクと海運排出量を接続する分析枠組みとして、Scope 3算定やシナリオ分析研究に応用できる。

🏢実務担当者:中東航路依存の調達・物流チームは、迂回によるリードタイム・運賃・排出増をScope 3および調達リスク評価に織り込む必要がある。

🏛政策担当者:海上交通路の安定と脱炭素の両立に向け、海運のレジリエンス政策と排出インベントリ整備の連携が示唆される。

Abstract Ongoing geopolitical tensions in West Asia, particularly across the Strait of Hormuz, the Suez Canal, and the Red Sea, pose a systemic threat to global maritime stability. Through a systematic qualitative content analysis of institutional reports, geopolitical literature, and ocean economy studies, this paper examines how hybrid warfare and asymmetric threats disrupt global shipping operations, inflate logistics costs, alter commercial transit routes, increase carbon emissions, and threaten the broader blue economy. The empirical findings indicate that rerouting commercial vessels around the Cape of Good Hope increases transit times by 10 to 14 days, driving spot freight rates up by 150 percent to 200 percent, while simultaneously boosting bunker fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions by up to 35 percent per voyage. Furthermore, war risk insurance premiums imposed by international underwriters spike vessel operating costs by an additional 0.5 percent to 1.0 percent of total vessel valuation per crossing. By integrating Neoclassical Realism with World Systems Theory, the study illustrates how localized asymmetric conflict in semi-peripheral maritime corridors triggers structural supply chain shocks across core economic hubs. Ultimately, the paper synthesises these findings into a comprehensive maritime resilience framework that highlights advanced technological integration, multilateral naval coordination, multimodal infrastructure, and sustainable ocean governance. 

• semanticscholar https://jurcon.ums.edu.my/ojums/index.php/MANU/article/download/8409/5050first seen 2026-09-26 05:19:46 · last seen 2026-09-29 05:30:26