経済ゲージ理論：ストック・フロー整合性、熱力学的制約、パチョリ多様体上の気候リスク

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:Provides a novel theoretical framework linking accounting, finance, and climate risk, useful for advancing integrated assessment models.

🏛政策担当者:Offers a conceptual basis for understanding carbon pricing and climate risk, potentially informing policy design, but lacks direct operational guidance.

ATTRIBUTION NOTICE (2026-08, revised). One element of this framework has substantial prior art that is not cited: the identification of arbitrage with curvature — transport wealth around a closed loop of currencies, and a holonomy different from unity is riskless profit. That is Kirill Ilinski's, developed in Physics of Finance: Gauge Modelling in Non-equilibrium Pricing (Wiley, 2001) and in papers from the late 1990s, together with the reading of prices, exchange rates and discount factors as connection coefficients and of unit changes as gauge transformations. What is not Ilinski's, and should not be read as a rediscovery. His base space is time crossed with a discrete set of assets, and his programme is dynamical: matter fields carrying capital, a least-action principle, lattice-QED path integrals, with Black–Scholes recovered as the free-field limit and market anomalies arising from interacting matter. The construction here instead builds its base from double-entry accounting — the Pacioli manifold, with ∂² = 0 as the balance-sheet identity — and extends it to physical production via Leontief input–output. Neither the accounting base nor the production extension appears in Ilinski, and the emphasis here is structural rather than dynamical. The double-entry-as-chain-complex reading has its own prior art in David Ellerman's work on the Pacioli group (1986 onward), also uncited. A revised version citing both, and stating clearly which elements are inherited and which are new, is in preparation. Financial Gauge Theory (FGT) places derivative pricing, interest rate models, credit risk, and valuation adjustments on a common geometric foundation: the Pacioli manifold, whose $\partial^2 = 0$ conservation law is double-entry bookkeeping, and whose fibre geometry encodes all financial frictions as curvature. The framework is, however, restricted to the financial sub-manifold. Physical production networks, thermodynamic constraints, and material flows are absent from the base. This paper introduces Economic Gauge Theory (EGT): FGT over the extended Pacioli manifold $\mathcal{B}_\mathrm{ext} = \mathcal{B}_\mathrm{phys} \cup \mathcal{B}_\mathrm{fin}$, where $\mathcal{B}_\mathrm{phys}$ is the Leontief input-output network of physical production. EGT contains FGT as the special case $\mathcal{B}_\mathrm{phys} = \varnothing$. Keen's Minsky software is the discrete computational realisation of $\mathcal{B}_\mathrm{fin}$ alone: it correctly encodes $\partial^2 = 0$ but has no representation of fibre curvature, holonomy, or the physical sub-manifold. EGT is the geometric theory of which Minsky is the bookkeeping skeleton. Three results are proved. First (Theorem 1, Kaldor–Working as flatness): the commodity convenience yield is the holonomy of the composite connection on the tensor product bundle $\mathcal{E}_\mathrm{phys} \otimes \mathcal{E}_\mathrm{fin}$; the Kaldor–Working cost-of-carry formula is the flatness condition on this bundle; and the convenience yield connection coefficient equals $(\Lambda_i - 1),\mu/\kappa_i$, where $\Lambda_i$ is the diagonal of the Leontief inverse and $\kappa_i$ is inventory tightness. As $\kappa_i \to 0^+$ (near-stockout), $y_i \to +\infty$: the physical fibre curvature diverges, the forward curve collapses into deep backwardation, and the 2021–22 simultaneous spike in energy, metals, and agricultural convenience yields is identified as topological surgery on $\mathcal{B}_\mathrm{phys}$. Second (Theorem 2, externalities as curvature): an unpriced environmental externality is an off-diagonal curvature component $F_\mathrm{phys,fin}$ on the tensor product bundle. Setting $F_\mathrm{phys,fin} = 0$ is the scalar-fungibility assumption of integrated assessment models such as DICE; it is a well-defined limit of EGT, correct only when all externalities are already priced. Third (Proposition 3, social cost of carbon as shadow price): the social cost of carbon is the shadow price of the planetary carbon budget — a constraint set on $\mathcal{B}_\mathrm{phys}$ analogous to the KVA regulatory boundary. It diverges as the remaining budget is exhausted. A Climate Minsky Moment is the discontinuous correction of $F_\mathrm{phys,fin}$ toward zero when the physical constraint binds, in direct parallel to the tropical default mechanism of doi:10.5281/zenodo.20234853. The paper concludes with an explicit comparison of four levels of IAM approximation in EGT terms: DICE (zero off-diagonal curvature), REMIND and MESSAGEix (non-zero but exogenous coupling), E3ME (correct SFC base, approximate coupling), and EGT (full tensor product with derived curvature). Companion papers: Paper 291 (doi:10.5281/zenodo.20234853), Paper 295 (doi:10.5281/zenodo.20242355), Paper 296 (doi:10.5281/zenodo.20244445), Paper 298 (doi:10.5281/zenodo.20257596), Paper 299 (doi:10.5281/zenodo.20257723). Primer: Paper 301 (doi:10.5281/zenodo.20259505). Keyword

• openaire https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20681689first seen 2026-09-01 05:02:38 · last seen 2026-09-21 04:33:41