拡張CGEフレームワークにおけるエネルギー集約型産業の脱炭素化経路
Decarbonization pathways of energy intensive industries in an enhanced CGE framework (原題)
Fragkiadakis, Dimitris, Manfroni, Michele, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Vrontisi, Zoi
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
EUの鉄鋼・セメント・化学の脱炭素化をGEM-E3 CGEモデルで2050年まで定量化。鉄鋼の技術詳細モジュールとCCS導入モジュールを追加し、ETS・CBAM・車両CO2基準を含む政策シナリオを比較した。2050年のほぼ完全脱炭素は技術的に可能だが、経済結果は政策設計と電力価格に強く依存。CBAMは鉄金属の国内生産を支える一方、炭素価格単独では水素製鉄の普及に不十分と示す。
English
This study quantifies socio-economic implications of EU industrial decarbonization to 2050 using the GEM-E3 CGE model, extended with a technology-rich steelmaking module and a dedicated industrial CCS module. Comparing a frozen policy pathway against a Fit-for-55-aligned scenario with ETS1/ETS2, CBAM, and vehicle CO2 standards, it finds near-complete decarbonization is technically achievable but economically contingent on policy design and electricity prices. CBAM supports domestic ferrous metals output, while carbon pricing alone is insufficient for hydrogen-based steelmaking.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
EUのETS・CBAM・電力価格が重工業の競争力と脱炭素をどう左右するかを定量化した点は、日本がGX推進と炭素国境調整・カーボンプライシング設計を検討する上で直接的な示唆を持つ。鉄鋼・化学など輸出型素材産業の移行戦略や支援策の設計に参照価値が高い。
In the global GX context
Provides quantitative CGE evidence on how CBAM, ETS design, and electricity prices shape competitiveness and decarbonization of hard-to-abate sectors—directly relevant to global debates on carbon border adjustment, transition finance, and industrial policy under Fit-for-55 and CBAM implementation.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:CGEモデルに技術詳細とCCSモジュールを組み込む手法と、政策感度分析の枠組みが参考になる。
🏢実務担当者:鉄鋼・化学・セメント企業はCBAMと電力価格が自社の競争力・輸出に与える影響を把握できる。
🏛政策担当者:炭素価格単独では不十分で、水素製鉄への追加支援やCCS政策の組み合わせ設計が重要と示唆される。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Achieving EU climate neutrality requires deep decarbonization of energy-intensive industries, where emissions stem from both fuel combustion and process/feedstock use and where competitiveness pressures are high. This study quantifies the socio-economic implications of industrial decarbonization in the European Union to 2050, focusing on three energy-intensive sectors and using the GEM-E3 computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We extend GEM-E3 with (i) a technology-rich, bottom-up representation of steelmaking that captures alternative production routes, input requirements, costs, and material constraints, and (ii) a dedicated module for carbon capture and storage (CCS) uptake in industrial process emissions (steel, cement, chemicals). We evaluate two policy settings: a Frozen Policy Pathway (continuation of pre-2023 EU ETS policies and limited ambition) and a Core Policy Scenario aligned with Fit-for-55 and long-term climate-neutrality objectives, including updated ETS1/ETS2, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), and CO₂ standards for vehicles; variants explore sensitivity to electricity prices. Results indicate that near-complete decarbonization of energy-intensive industries by 2050 is technically achievable, but economic outcomes depend strongly on policy design and energy-system conditions. CBAM materially supports domestic output in exposed sectors—most notably ferrous metals—by reducing the competitiveness gap with more carbon-intensive imports, while chemicals and cement experience moderate output reductions due to export impacts and demand shifts. Electricity prices emerge as a pivotal determinant of competitiveness in a highly electrified net-zero economy. The enhanced steel module suggests that carbon pricing alone is insufficient for widespread hydrogen-based steelmaking; additional support and/or CCS is required to accelerate breakthrough transitions. Macroeconomically, stringent policies deliver large emissions cuts (≈83% vs. frozen policies by 2050) at a moderate GDP cost (≈1.8%).
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- Zenodo https://zenodo.org/records/24159936first seen 2026-11-13 04:13:51
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