Valuing Blue Carbon for Ecological Sovereignty: Dynamics and Projections of Seagrass Stock in Teluk Saleh
生態系主権のためのブルーカーボンの評価：テルク・サレにおける海草ストックの動態と予測 (AI 翻訳)
Kharisma Rinandyta, Rizki Atthoriq Hidayat, Surya Hafizh
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、インドネシア・テルクサレの海草ブルーカーボンストックを定量化し、2035年までの将来動態を予測した。Sentinel-2衛星画像とSVM分類によって2019-2025年の分布をマッピングし、ARIMAモデルで炭素ストックの変動を投影。結果は高い時間的変動性を示し、2028年に約5万トンの回復可能性を示唆するが、人為的圧力への感受性も明らかになった。
English
This study quantifies seagrass blue carbon stock in Teluk Saleh, Indonesia, and projects its dynamics to 2035. Using Sentinel-2 imagery and SVM classification for mapping (2019-2025) and ARIMA for projections, results show significant temporal variability with a potential recovery peak near 50,000 tons in 2028, yet remain sensitive to anthropogenic pressures. The findings underscore data-driven coastal management and climate mitigation policies.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本でもブルーカーボン生態系への関心が高まっており、J-クレジット制度への活用が進む。本論文が提供するリモートセンシングと機械学習を組み合わせた炭素ストック評価手法は、日本の沿岸域管理やカーボンオフセットの基礎として参考になる。
In the global GX context
Blue carbon ecosystems are increasingly recognized as nature-based solutions in global climate mitigation. This paper provides a robust methodology using satellite imagery and machine learning for carbon stock estimation, relevant to IPCC guidelines and national greenhouse gas inventories. It also highlights the potential of blue carbon in sustainable coastal economies and non-extractive development pathways.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Quantitative methods combining remote sensing (SVM) and time-series (ARIMA) for blue carbon assessment offer a replicable framework.
🏢実務担当者:Coastal managers can use the mapping and projection results to prioritize conservation areas and design monitoring programs.
🏛政策担当者:Supports national climate mitigation targets by providing evidence-based blue carbon data for NDCs and carbon market strategies.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Limited quantitative data and a 7% annual rate of seagrass degradation hamper efforts to optimize Indonesia’s blue carbon absorption potential within global climate change mitigation strategies. This study aims to quantify seagrass blue carbon stock and project its future dynamics in Teluk Saleh, West Nusa Tenggara. Seagrass distribution from 2019 to 2025 was mapped using Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and a Support Vector Machine (SVM) classification approach. Carbon stock projections until 2035 were conducted using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model. The results show significant temporal variability, with carbon stocks decreasing by approximately 16,000 tons (2022) and then increasing by 36,000 tons (2023). Projected peak recovery potential is approaching 50,000 tons (2028), but this projection remains sensitive to ongoing anthropogenic pressures. These findings underscore the importance of blue carbon quantification in supporting data-driven coastal management and climate mitigation policies, and highlight its potential to inform sustainable, non-extractive economic pathways.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.69606/geography.v4i2.479first seen 2026-06-17 05:59:07 · last seen 2026-06-17 07:14:21
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