GCC諸国における炭素排出：ICT投資は環境持続可能性を促進できるか？

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:ICTと排出の因果関係が頑健性検定で崩れる点は、デジタル化と環境の実証研究における内生性処理の重要性を示す。

🏢実務担当者:中東事業やGCCサプライヤー評価で、デジタル化を排出削減効果として過大評価しない判断材料になる。

🏛政策担当者:ICT投資を気候政策の主要手段と位置づける前に、エネルギー構成や再エネ導入との整合を検討すべきとの示唆。

This paper examines the determinants of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries over the period 2000–2022. The GCC region presents a distinctive empirical setting, characterized by high fossil fuel dependency, among the highest per capita CO2 emission rates globally, and ambitious national sustainability agendas. Despite the region’s environmental significance, empirical evidence on the combined role of digitalization, investment flows, demographic pressures, and renewable energy in driving GCC emissions remains limited. This study examines these factors together, unlike much of the existing GCC literature, taking into account cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity across GCC economies. The analysis considers the association of foreign direct investment, economic growth, energy use, information and communication technologies, population, and renewable energy with CO2 emissions and environmental sustainability. A balanced panel dataset from the World Bank is employed to examine both the short-run dynamics and long-run associations. To account for cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity, the study applies second-generation panel econometric techniques, including the Cross-sectionally Augmented Dickey–Fuller (CADF) equation, the Cross-sectionally Augmented IPS (CIPS) test, Westerlund cointegration tests, and the Cross-Sectional Autoregressive Distributed Lag (CS-ARDL) model, complemented by Dumitrescu–Hurlin causality and fixed-effects instrumental-variable robustness analyses. The empirical findings show that energy use, population, and economic growth are positively associated with CO2 emissions. ICT is negatively associated with CO2 emissions in the CS-ARDL estimates; however, this relationship becomes statistically insignificant when ICT is treated as endogenous in the IV robustness analysis, indicating that it should not be interpreted as a causal emission-reduction effect. Renewable energy and foreign direct investment do not show statistically significant associations in the main CS-ARDL estimates. The causality results further indicate predictive causality from CO2 emissions to ICT, reinforcing the possibility of reverse causality. These findings carry important policy implications for GCC policymakers seeking to align economic development with environmental sustainability and long-term climate commitments.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.3390/su182010658first seen 2026-11-07 04:41:38