Global Drivers of Food Prices: The Roles of Energy Prices, the U.S. Dollar, and Supply Chain Pressures
食料価格の世界的な決定要因：エネルギー価格、米ドル、サプライチェーン圧力の役割 (AI 翻訳)
Sönmezay Mine
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、エネルギー価格、米ドル指数、サプライチェーン圧力指数がFAO食料価格指数に与える影響をARDLモデルで分析。エネルギー価格が長期的な主要因であり、ドル高は短期的に負の影響、サプライチェーン圧力の影響は限定的。植物油、砂糖、穀物で差異が大きい。
English
This study analyzes the joint effects of energy prices, the U.S. dollar index, and supply chain pressures on the FAO Food Price Index using ARDL. Energy prices are the dominant long-run driver, dollar appreciation has short-run negative effects, and supply chain pressures have limited impact. Differences across commodities are notable.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本は食料輸入依存度が高く、エネルギー価格と為替の変動が食料安全保障に直結する。本研究成果は、GX推進に伴うエネルギー価格変動が国内食料価格に波及する経路を理解する上で示唆に富む。
In the global GX context
This paper contributes to global understanding of how energy transition policies might affect food prices through energy costs, relevant for climate policy design and food security. It provides empirical evidence for integrated policy approaches.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides empirical evidence on energy-food price linkages, useful for climate-economy modeling.
🏢実務担当者:Insights for food industry and energy-intensive supply chains on cost drivers.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the need to consider energy price impacts on food security in climate policy.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Global food prices have become increasingly exposed to macroeconomic and geopolitical disturbances, yetlimited empirical evidence explains how energy markets, exchange rate movements, and supply chain disruptions jointlyinfluence food price dynamics. This study examines the combined effects of global energy prices, the Broad U.S. DollarIndex, and the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) on the FAO Food Price Index using monthly observationscovering January 2006 to May 2026. An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework is employed to distinguishbetween long-run equilibrium relationships and short-run adjustments among the variables.The empirical findings indicate that energy prices constitute the dominant long-run determinant of global food prices,with sustained increases in energy costs translating into persistently higher food prices over time. By contrast, appreciationof the U.S. dollar exerts a significant negative influence only in the short run, while the aggregate impact of global supplychain pressures remains statistically limited. Additional robustness analyses—including alternative energy measures,crisis-period controls, and disaggregated FAO commodity indices—confirm the stability of the baseline results and revealsubstantial differences across commodity groups, particularly for vegetable oils, sugar, and cereals.By integrating energy markets, international monetary conditions, and global supply chain pressures into a unifiedempirical framework, this study provides a more comprehensive perspective on the mechanisms driving global foodprices. The findings contribute to the literature on food price formation and offer policy implications for improving foodmarket resilience under conditions of heightened global uncertainty.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21618135first seen 2026-08-16 04:49:36 · last seen 2026-08-16 04:49:49
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