米国における気温起因死亡の将来増加回避にはメタン削減が鍵：データとコード

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:気候－健康影響の統合評価モデルとシナリオ比較の実装例として参照できる。

🏢実務担当者:メタン削減の健康便益を自社の気候リスク・適応の説明材料に援用できる。

🏛政策担当者:メタン規制と大気汚染対策の相互作用を踏まえた政策設計の根拠となる。

Data and python code to conduct analysis and create figures for this manuscript: Methane Mitigation is Key to Avoiding Future Increases in Temperature-attributable Deaths in the United States Abstract Climate change is projected to increase heat-attributable mortality in the United States (U.S.), while decreasing cold-attributable mortality. Air quality measures that reduce short-lived air pollutants can unmask additional warming and, along with greenhouse gas emissions, increase heat-attributable mortality. Methane mitigation is a key strategy to offset this warming, because temperatures respond quickly to emission changes. However, the combined impact of methane and air pollutants on the net temperature-attributable mortality remains poorly quantified. We estimate future temperature-attributable mortality rates and associated deaths using CMIP6 AerChemMIP climate projections and a U.S. county-level temperature-mortality model under a no-action climate change baseline and scenarios that reduce air pollutants and methane, assuming no adaptation or population change. Under the baseline scenario, rising temperatures increase heat-attributable mortality rates in the U.S. more than they decrease cold-attributable mortality rates after mid-century, resulting in a growing net mortality burden. Strong air pollutant measures increase temperatures, producing offsetting increases in heat mortality rates and decreases in cold mortality rates relative to the baseline over the 21st century. In contrast, aggressive methane mitigation lowers net temperature-attributable mortality rates by 5.8 (IQR: 2.2 to 9.2) deaths per 100,000 in 2100 relative to the baseline. Combined air pollutant and methane mitigation changes net temperature-attributable mortality rates by -1.7 (IQR:-6.5 to 3.0) deaths per 100,000 relative to the baseline in 2100, corresponding to approximately 361,000 cumulative avoided temperature-attributable deaths (IQR: 145,000 additional to 872,000 avoided) over 2015-2100, driven primarily by reduced heat mortality from methane mitigation. Regional mortality responses vary but do not alter national population-weighted impacts.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18511455first seen 2026-10-24 04:38:47 · last seen 2026-11-02 04:35:30