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ETS Price Signal in the Power Sector: Evidence on Decarbonisation and Policy Overlap

電力部門におけるETS価格シグナル：脱炭素化と政策重複のエビデンス (AI 翻訳)

Giacomo Di Foggia, Massimo Beccarello, Bakary Jammeh

プレプリント2026-05-29#炭素価格Origin: EU
DOI: 10.32388/iogu7j.2
原典: https://doi.org/10.32388/iogu7j.2
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🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本論文は、2013-2024年のEU排出量取引制度（ETS）が電力部門の再生可能エネルギー導入に与えた影響を分析。パネル計量分析、120社調査、8カ国の市場データを用い、公共支援制度が再エネ容量拡大の一貫した要因である一方、EUA価格の直接効果は限定的であることを発見。ETSは主に卸電力価格と炭素コスト転嫁を通じて低炭素技術に収益をもたらすメカニズムとして機能していることを示した。

English

This paper examines the EU ETS's impact on renewable energy deployment in the power sector from 2013-2024. Using panel econometrics, a survey of 120 firms, and hourly market data, it finds that public support mechanisms consistently drive renewable capacity expansion, while the EU Allowance price has no significant direct effect. The ETS primarily operates by shaping wholesale electricity prices and generating inframarginal rents for low-carbon technologies through carbon-cost pass-through. Regulatory CO2 factors for indirect cost compensation vary widely across member states.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

EU ETSの経験は、日本が検討中の炭素価格制度設計に重要な示唆を与える。特に政策重複（支援制度と炭素価格の相互作用）や費用転嫁の実態は、日本のGXリーグや排出量取引の検討に参考となる。

In the global GX context

This study provides robust empirical evidence on the interaction between carbon pricing and renewable support policies in the EU electricity sector, highlighting that the ETS functions more as a revenue redistribution mechanism than a direct investment driver. The findings are critical for global policymakers designing carbon pricing systems, especially regarding policy overlap and market-based pass-through.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Researchers studying carbon pricing effectiveness and policy interactions will find detailed empirical evidence on the EU ETS's limited direct effect on renewable investment.

🏢実務担当者:Corporate sustainability teams in the power sector can learn about carbon cost pass-through variability and implications for asset valuation.

🏛政策担当者:Policymakers designing carbon pricing mechanisms should note the importance of complementary support schemes and the wide variation in regulatory CO2 factors across member states.

📄 Abstract（原文）

We examine whether the EU Emissions Trading System has effectively operated as a direct driver of renewable-energy deployment in the European electricity sector over the period 2013-2024 and investigate the interaction between carbon pricing, renewable investment dynamics and wholesale electricity-price formation within marginal pricing systems. Combining panel econometric analysis on installed renewable capacity across European Member States, a cross-country survey of 120 firms in six EU ETS countries, and an hourly market-based estimation of inframarginal rents on a panel of eight Member States, we find that public support mechanisms emerge as a consistently driver of renewable-capacity expansion. The EU Allowance price does not exhibit ficant direct effect on renewable deployment after controlling for structural and market variables. In electricity markets, the ETS primarily operates through mechanisms that shape wholesale electricity prices and carbon-cost pass-through, generating persistent inframarginal revenues for low-carbon technologies through marginal price formation. A comparison between regulatory CO₂ factors used for indirect ETS cost compensation and observed market-based pass-through indicators reveals materially divergent magnitudes across Member States, with regulatory-to-observed ratios ranging from 1.2x in Italy to 46.2x in Sweden. The evidence suggests that, in European electricity markets, the ETS currently operates more directly as a wholesale-price transmission and revenue-redistribution mechanism than as a sufficiently autonomous and stable driver of renewable investment deployment.

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