Marginal abatement cost curves for carbon-neutral transition in Thailand’s agri-food processing industry: quantitative pathways toward bio-circular-green economy alignment
タイの農業食品加工産業におけるカーボンニュートラル移行の限界削減費用曲線：バイオ・サーキュラー・グリーン経済への定量的経路 (AI 翻訳)
Phutthichai Amornwattahcharoenchai, Konpapha Jantapoon
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
この研究はタイの農業食品加工5サブセクターの限界削減費用曲線を構築。Scope1・2排出量は年間8,737ktCO2e、バイオマスコージェネレーション等でNDC目標超の削減が可能。BCG Alignment Indexを提案し政策マトリクスを提供。
English
This study constructs marginal abatement cost curves for five Thai agri-food sub-sectors. Total Scope 1&2 emissions are 8,737 ktCO2e/year. Abatement measures like biomass cogeneration can exceed NDC targets at negative or near-zero cost. A BCG Alignment Index is introduced for policy guidance.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
タイのBCG経済戦略に沿った産業脱炭素化の定量分析であり、日本の農林水産セクターのGX政策や食品加工業の排出削減策の参考になる。特に負コスト対策の特定は日本の食料産業のエネルギー転換に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This paper provides sector-wide MAC curves for Thailand's agri-food industry, linking to NDC targets and a national circular economy strategy. It offers replicable methodology for developing countries and contributes to the global literature on cost-effective industrial decarbonization. The emissions dataset aids voluntary carbon disclosure in trade.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a novel MAC curve methodology with uncertainty quantification for agri-food sectors, useful for cross-country comparisons.
🏢実務担当者:The emissions baseline and abatement cost data can support Thai food exporters in voluntary carbon footprint disclosure.
🏛政策担当者:Delivers an actionable policy matrix for aligning industrial strategy with NDC targets under the BCG framework, highlighting cost-negative measures.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Thailand’s agri-food processing sector is a significant source of industrial greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, yet the cost-effectiveness of sector-level decarbonisation options remains unquantified in the peer-reviewed literature. This evidence gap hinders evidence-based policy design under Thailand’s Bio-Circular-Green (BCG) Economy strategy and its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target of 33.3% GHG reduction by 2030. This study constructs sector-specific Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) curves for five major Thai agri-food processing sub-sectors (sugarcane processing, cassava starch manufacturing, rice milling, canned fruit, and frozen seafood processing) using exclusively secondary quantitative data from national energy audit reports, GHG inventories, and IPCC emission factors. Eight abatement measures are evaluated per sub-sector. Parameter uncertainty is bounded through Monte Carlo simulation. A composite BCG Alignment Index (BCG-AI) is introduced to score each sub-sector across the Bio, Circular, and Green dimensions of the BCG framework. Total Scope 1 and 2 GHG emissions from the five sub-sectors are estimated at 8,737 ktCO₂e per year. MAC values range from −14.2 USD per tonne CO₂ equivalent for biomass cogeneration in sugarcane processing to +42.5 USD per tonne CO₂ equivalent for cold-chain electrification in frozen seafood. The Aligned Transition scenario yields an estimated abatement of 3,399 ktCO₂e (90% uncertainty interval: 2,780–3,910 ktCO₂e), exceeding an analytical proxy sector-level NDC target of approximately 2,910 ktCO₂e. No sub-sector achieves BCG Advanced status (BCG-AI > 70). This study presents one of the first sector-wide MAC curve analyses for Thailand’s agri-food processing industry published in the international peer-reviewed literature. NDC-consistent abatement is technically achievable at negative or near-zero net cost through biogas recovery and biomass cogeneration, and the findings deliver an actionable policy matrix for BCG industrial strategy and a baseline emissions-intensity dataset that Thai food exporters can use for voluntary carbon footprint disclosure as international carbon trade governance evolves.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2026.1842024first seen 2026-05-31 04:51:03 · last seen 2026-06-03 05:16:21
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