Comparative analysis of the key drivers of the transition to renewable energy in Tunisia and Morocco using the threshold effect of economic policy uncertainty
経済政策不確実性の閾値効果を用いたチュニジアとモロッコの再生可能エネルギー移行の主要因の比較分析 (AI 翻訳)
Soufiane Bouyghrissi, Emna Omri, Meryem CHEGRI
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
モロッコとチュニジアの再生可能エネルギー消費の決定要因を、1980〜2022年のデータと閾値回帰モデルで分析。経済政策不確実性（EPU）の閾値効果を検証し、モロッコでは高EPU時にGDP・FDI・金融発展が有意に影響する一方、チュニジアでは高EPU時に全ての変数が非有意となることを示した。政策立案者や投資家への示唆を提供する。
English
This study analyzes determinants of renewable energy consumption in Morocco and Tunisia using threshold regression on 1980-2022 data. It finds significant threshold effects of economic policy uncertainty: in Morocco, GDP, FDI, and financial development become significant under high EPU, while in Tunisia all variables become insignificant. Offers insights for policymakers and investors.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本では再エネ導入が進むが、政策不確実性の影響を定量的に示す本分析は、日本のエネルギー政策や投資判断に示唆を与える。特に、政策の安定性が再エネ投資に与える影響は、日本のFIT見直しや市場統合の議論にも関連する。
In the global GX context
This paper contributes to global understanding of how policy uncertainty shapes renewable energy transitions, relevant for emerging economies and for global investors assessing policy risk. It adds empirical evidence from North Africa, a region often underrepresented in the literature.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides empirical evidence on the threshold effects of policy uncertainty on renewable energy adoption, useful for comparative policy analysis.
🏢実務担当者:Highlights the importance of policy stability for renewable energy investments, informing risk assessment in emerging markets.
🏛政策担当者:Demonstrates that reducing policy uncertainty can enhance the effectiveness of other drivers, guiding policy design.
📄 Abstract（原文）
The transition to renewable energies is a pressing global issue, particularly for economies like Morocco and Tunisia, which rely on imports to meet nearly all their energy needs. This transition is, therefore, an essential strategy for both countries, not only to combat climate change but also to curtail dependence on fossil fuel imports. In this context, the current study aims to examine financial development (FD), technological innovation (TI), foreign direct investment (FDI), and gross domestic product (GDP) as key determinants of renewable energy consumption (REC) in Tunisia and Morocco. The study spans 43 years (1980–2022) and employs the threshold regression model. Additionally, the impact of the threshold level of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on these determinants is assessed. The outcomes indicate that, in Morocco, in the first regime (EPU ≤ 0.0337), only GDP significantly and positively influences REC. In the second regime (EPU > 0.0337), GDP, LFDI, and LFD all significantly and positively affect REC. In Tunisia, under the first regime (EPU ≤ 0.2595), GDP and LFD positively affect REC, whereas LTI has a negative effect. In the second regime (EPU > 0.2595), the effects of all explanatory variables become statistically insignificant. These findings reveal a significant threshold effect of EPU, formally validated by the Hansen [32] linearity test (F = 17.669*** for Morocco,F = 16.434** for Tunisia). This paper may assist policymakers and investors in understanding the main factors shaping the transition to clean energies in Morocco and Tunisia, and in proposing effective strategies to accelerate it.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-026-04044-5first seen 2026-08-11 04:34:29
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