Nigeria Economy Under Climate Change
気候変動下のナイジェリア経済 (AI 翻訳)
Simon Ajayi Olukotun PhD
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本稿は2004～2024年のデータを用い、CO2排出量と年平均気温がナイジェリアGDPに有意な影響を与えることを回帰分析で示した。CO2排出増加はGDPを押し上げるが、気温上昇はGDPを大きく減少させる。化石燃料依存と気候脆弱性が明らかになった。
English
This paper examines the impact of climate change on Nigeria's GDP from 2004-2024 using regression analysis. It finds CO2 emissions have a positive effect on GDP (reflecting fossil fuel dependence), while rising annual temperature significantly reduces GDP, indicating high economic sensitivity to warming. The study recommends decoupling growth from emissions through renewable energy and mainstreaming temperature resilience.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
ナイジェリアの事例は、日本が途上国向けGX支援や技術協力を検討する上で参考になる。特に気候変動への経済脆弱性とCO2削減のジレンマは、日本企業のサプライチェーン対応にも示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This study provides empirical evidence of the trade-off between emissions-driven growth and climate vulnerability in a developing economy, relevant for global discussions on just transition and climate finance. The findings underscore the need for adaptation alongside mitigation.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Offers a clear econometric model linking GDP to emissions and temperature for a major African economy.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the urgency of decoupling GDP from CO2 and investing in adaptation, useful for developing-country climate policy.
📄 Abstract（原文）
This research work examined the impact of climate change on Nigeria economy (GDP) from 2004 – 2024. The study used secondary data sourced from the world bank. The Nigeria Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the dependent variable while climatic factors; Co2 emissions, animal average precipitation (AAP) and animal mean temperature (TEMP) are explanatory variables. The regression revealed that carbon dioxide emissions and annual temperature are statistically significant determinants of Nigeria’s GDP, while average annual precipitation is not. Specifically, CO₂ emissions have a positive and highly significant effect on GDP (coefficient = 0.663, p < 0.01), indicating that a 1% increase in emissions is associated with a 0.66% increase in GDP. This reflects Nigeria’s heavy dependence on fossil fuel extraction and combustion. Conversely, annual temperature has a negative and marginally significant effect on GDP (coefficient = -9.576, p < 0.1), meaning that a 1% rise in annual mean temperature leads to approximately a 9.6% decline in GDP. Given Nigeria’s very narrow temperature range (0.9°C), this large coefficient signals high economic sensitivity to even slight warming through reduced agricultural yields, lower labour productivity, higher cooling costs, and adverse health impacts. The model explains 83.4% of GDP variation (R-squared = 0.834) and is statistically significant overall (F-statistic p < 0.001). The study recommends that Nigeria pursue decoupling of GDP growth from CO₂ emissions by investing in renewable energy (especially solar), improving energy efficiency, and reducing gas flaring. Additionally, temperature resilience must be mainstreamed into economic planning through agricultural adaptation (heat-tolerant crops), workplace heat safety measures, urban green infrastructure, and health system preparedness for heat-related illnesses. These actions are essential to balance economic growth with climate sustainability.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- Zenodo https://zenodo.org/records/20641909first seen 2026-06-12 04:18:40 · last seen 2026-06-14 04:15:08
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