農業における炭素除去・緩和戦略のモデリング：土壌・作物・バイオマス利用の空間的・時間的動態

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:農業CDRの空間明示的モデリングとMRV統合の方法論的枠組みを学べる。

🏢実務担当者:農業サプライチェーンのScope 3・土壌炭素クレジットのMRV設計に示唆を得られる。

🏛政策担当者:農業由来カーボンクレジットや土地利用政策の空間的ターゲティング設計に参考となる。

Agriculture is essential for food, feed, fibre and a wide range of materials, while being a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, accounting for about 22 % of global emissions and 15 % of Sweden's territorial emissions. Most of these emissions are biogenic, arising from nitrogen turnover, microbial activity and livestock which makes them difficult to eliminate completely. Agriculture is therefore considered a hard-to-abate sector, where residual emissions must be balanced by carbon dioxide removal (CDR). At the same time, agricultural land holds substantial CDR potential through increased soil organic carbon (SOC) storage and the use of biochar as a soil amendment. Furthermore, the use of bio-based fuels, materials and chemicals can help reduce fossil carbon emissions while storing carbon outside the atmosphere. While there are several mitigation measures, their potential outcomes and effects depend on how and where they can be implemented, and particularly how they can be sustained in practice. This requires robust monitoring and verification of their effects, careful allocation of limited land and biomass between competing uses, and solutions that fit the operational realities of farmers.This thesis aims to develop and apply a spatially explicit analytical framework that integrates spatial and temporal datasets to evaluate carbon removal and selected mitigation pathways in Swedish agricultural systems. The thesis consists of four papers that progress from field to national scale. Paper A establishes a scalable monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) foundation by reconstructing field-level land use data and linking these to repeated national soil sampling campaigns. Paper B integrates farmer interest in changing farming activities with existing crop rotations to assess management measures at landscape level. Papers B and C quantify trade-offs and synergies between alternative biomass uses, including ley cultivation, biochar and green biorefinery side streams. Paper D assesses the spatial deployment of biomass-based mitigation across Sweden.The findings of this thesis show that agricultural climate mitigation depends not only on theoretical potential, but also on where measures are implemented, how resources are allocated, and practical conditions. Taken together, the papers show that measurement, modelling and spatial analysis are interdependent parts of a credible mitigation assessment. Monitoring shows what has happened, modelling explores what could happen under different choices, and spatial analysis shows where this can be realized. Modelling and spatiotemporal analysis can therefore support decisions on where and how to implement measures, and monitoring of the implemented measures in turn shows whether they achieve their intended outcomes. By connecting these functions in one framework, this thesis provides a foundation for matching agricultural climate change mitigation to local soils, farming systems, biomass resources, infrastructure and stakeholder priorities.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.63959/chalmers.dt/5954first seen 2026-11-02 04:42:10 · last seen 2026-11-06 04:36:44