中国のCO2排出の時間変動要因：ローリング窓分析（2000〜2023年）
Time-varying drivers of CO2 emissions in China: a rolling window analysis (2000–2023) (原題)
Ihsen Abid
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は2000〜2023年の中国の一人当たりCO2排出量の決定要因を、ローリング窓OLSを用いて時変的に分析。GDPとの関係は2010年以降弱まるが未だ非結合は不完全。クリーンエネルギー金融は遅延効果を持つが負の影響を強め、産業成長の影響は低下し構造転換を示唆。政治的安定は環境執行と結びついた場合のみ排出削減に寄与。政策主導の構造変革が重要と結論。
English
This study analyzes time-varying determinants of per capita CO2 emissions in China (2000-2023) using rolling window OLS. The GDP-emissions relationship weakens after 2010 but remains positive, indicating incomplete decoupling. Clean energy finance has delayed but increasingly negative effects, while industrial growth loses significance, reflecting structural decarbonization. Political stability reduces emissions only with effective environmental enforcement. Findings emphasize policy-mediated structural transformation for China's dual carbon targets.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
中国の排出動態と政策効果の時間変化を示す本分析は、日本の脱炭素政策やアジア域内の排出削減協力の参考になる。特にグリーンファイナンスの効果発現の遅れは、日本のトランジション・ファイナンス設計にも示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This paper provides empirical evidence on how policy, finance, and institutional factors drive emissions in China, relevant to global discussions on decoupling and green finance effectiveness. It highlights the importance of adaptive policies and institutional quality, which are key themes in ISSB and transition finance frameworks.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides time-varying evidence on drivers of emissions in China, useful for understanding decoupling dynamics and policy effectiveness.
🏢実務担当者:Highlights the role of green finance and institutional quality in emissions reduction, informing corporate strategy in China.
🏛政策担当者:Offers policy recommendations for adaptive environmental policies and scaling green finance to meet carbon targets.
📄 Abstract（原文）
This study examines the time-varying determinants of per capita CO2 emissions in China over 2000–2023, focusing on how macroeconomic, financial, and institutional factors evolve. Using annual data from the World Bank and governance indicators, a rolling window Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) approach is employed to capture dynamic relationships between emissions and their drivers. The results show that the GDP–emissions relationship weakens after 2010 but remains positive, indicating incomplete decoupling. Clean energy finance exhibits delayed but increasingly negative effects, reflecting implementation lags. Industrial growth loses significance over time, indicating structural decarbonization, while labour force effects capture sectoral reallocation rather than scale effects. Political stability reduces emissions only when aligned with effective environmental enforcement. These findings demonstrate that emissions mitigation in China is driven by policy-mediated structural transformation rather than automatic economic adjustment. Based on these findings, the study recommends: (i) adopting adaptive, environmental policies that respond to evolving economic structures; (ii) scaling up green finance instruments – such as green bonds and international climate finance – to accelerate clean energy deployment; (iii) strengthening institutional quality and regulatory enforcement; and (iv) promoting structural transformation toward low-carbon and service-oriented sectors. These policy directions are essential to support China’s dual carbon targets of peaking emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.33198180.v1first seen 2026-08-31 04:55:32
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