The Macroeconomic Impact of Decarbonizing Industrial Heat vs. Electrical Grids: A Comparative Analysis of Capital Investment, GDP Growth, and Long-Term Economic Returns
産業熱と電力網の脱炭素化のマクロ経済影響：資本投資、GDP成長、長期経済リターンの比較分析 (AI 翻訳)
Aanu Loveday Solomon
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、産業熱と電力網の脱炭素化を比較するマクロ経済分析を提供する。電力網の脱炭素化は大規模な初期投資を要するが、LCOEの低下により長期的な経済リターンが予測可能である。一方、産業熱の脱炭素化はグリーン水素やCCUSへの深い構造的投資を必要とし、短期的な競争力リスクをもたらすが、長期的にはシステムの回復力を高める。統合的なセクター横断計画の必要性を強調する。
English
This paper presents a comparative macroeconomic analysis of decarbonizing industrial heat versus electrical grids. Grid decarbonization requires massive upfront capital but yields predictable long-term returns due to falling LCOE. Industrial thermal decarbonization demands deep structural investments in green hydrogen and CCUS, imposing near-term competitiveness risks but enhancing long-term systemic resilience. The study advocates for integrated multi-sector planning.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本は産業部門の排出量が多く、水素・CCUSの導入が急務。本分析は、産業熱脱炭素化のマクロ経済リスクと長期メリットを明示し、政府のGX政策（例えば水素基本戦略）や企業の投資判断に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
Globally, the paper addresses a critical gap: the comparative macroeconomics of industrial vs. grid decarbonization. It informs ISSB-aligned transition planning and national climate strategies, emphasizing the need for integrated energy and industrial policy.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a conceptual framework comparing two decarbonization pathways, useful for further empirical modeling.
🏢実務担当者:Highlights the trade-offs between grid and industrial decarbonization, aiding corporate long-term investment and transition risk assessment.
🏛政策担当者:Emphasizes the need for coordinated multi-sector planning and potential GDP impacts, informing national decarbonization strategies.
📄 Abstract（原文）
The global transition toward net-zero emissions has historically prioritized the decarbonization of the electrical grid through renewable energy deployment. However, the abatement of emissions from heavy industrial thermal processes presents distinct thermodynamic and macroeconomic challenges. This paper provides a comparative macroeconomic analysis of decarbonizing industrial heat versus electrical grids. Utilizing a conceptual framework grounded in structural macroeconomic modeling, we compare capital investment requirements, implications for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, and long-term economic returns. Drawing upon foundational frameworks of energy-growth nexuses (Shahbaz et al., 2020), systematic sustainability transitions (Bhuiyan et al., 2022), and multi-sector national climate solutions (Attanayake et al., 2024), this study demonstrates distinct structural divergences. Our findings indicate that while electrical grid decarbonization requires immense up-front capital for transmission and storage assets, it yields highly predictable longterm economic returns due to falling levelized costs of electricity (LCOE). Conversely, industrial thermal decarbonization requires deep structural capital investments into low-carbon technologies like green hydrogen (H_2) and carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS). Due to high operating expenses (OPEX) and technology premiums, industrial thermal abatement introduces higher near-term risks to industrial competitiveness and GDP growth, but offers profound systemic resilience and raw material stability over long horizons. Ultimately, integrated multi-sector planning is required to mitigate macroeconomic shocks during the structural transition.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.38124/ijisrt/26jun075first seen 2026-06-19 05:32:46
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