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スキー目的地の気候変動ジレンマ:適応が不適応になる

The climate change dilemma of ski destinations: adaptation becomes maladaptation (原題)

Ching Li, Ting-Yen (Tim) Huang, Jia-Rui Zheng

Frontiers in Sports and Active Living📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-08-18#気候リスクOrigin: JP対象セクター: tourism
DOI: 10.3389/fspor.2026.1865169
原典: https://doi.org/10.3389/fspor.2026.1865169
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🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本研究は、日本のスキー産業における適応策が新たな脆弱性を生む「不適応」リスクを分析。標高ベースのスノーリライアビリティライン(SRL)スクリーニング枠組みを開発し、気象庁の気候データとリゾートの公開資料を用いて評価。高標高・北部のリゾートは安定している一方、低・中標高ではスノーマシン依存や限界的状況が多く、活動拡大やインフラ固定化がエネルギー需要増や経路依存を招くことを示した。

English

This study analyzes maladaptation risks in Japan's ski industry, where adaptation measures can create new vulnerabilities. Using an elevation-based Snow Reliability Line (SRL) screening framework with JMA climate data and resort documents, it finds high-elevation and northern resorts stable, while low- to mid-elevation sites are snowmaking-dependent or marginal. Activity expansion and fixed infrastructure increase energy demand and path dependence, highlighting the need to integrate adaptation with mitigation and carbon accounting.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本のスキー産業は気候変動の影響を強く受ける一方、適応策がエネルギー消費を増大させる可能性がある。本研究成果は、地域の脱炭素計画や観光政策において、適応と緩和の統合的評価の重要性を示す。

In the global GX context

This study contributes to global adaptation scholarship by empirically linking adaptation actions to maladaptive outcomes, offering a framework applicable to climate-sensitive sectors. It underscores the need for anticipatory governance and year-round carbon accounting in tourism-dependent regions.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Provides a novel framework for assessing maladaptation in climate-sensitive industries, applicable to other sectors.

🏢実務担当者:Highlights risks of infrastructure lock-in and energy-intensive adaptation, informing sustainable investment decisions.

🏛政策担当者:Suggests integrating adaptation and mitigation policies to avoid maladaptive pathways in regional development.

📄 Abstract(原文)

Climate change is progressively eroding the operational viability of ski tourism, while measures intended to sustain winter seasons can generate new vulnerabilities. This study examines how technical interventions, infrastructure reinforcement, and activity-expansion strategies shape adaptation and maladaptation risk in Japan's ski sector. We develop an exploratory Snow Reliability Line (SRL) screening framework that links elevation-based snow-reliability exposure, publicly documented resort actions, and maladaptation coding. The exposure framework is calibrated with Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) 1991–2020 station climatology and tested through multi-parameter sensitivity analysis. It combines Alpine SRL research with a Japan-oriented regional adjustment and a document-based assessment of adaptation and maladaptation pathways. The maladaptation evaluation relies exclusively on conservative, document-based policy analysis of publicly available resort materials. The exploratory classification reveals a spatial and operational divide. High-elevation and northern resorts retain relatively stable winter conditions, whereas low- to mid-elevation sites are more frequently classified as snowmaking-dependent or critically marginal. Maladaptation risks are concentrated in the A1-B1-Dead and A1-B1-C1 pathways, where activity expansion, extended operations, accessibility incentives, and fixed winter infrastructure are associated with higher aggregate energy demand, opportunity costs, and path dependence. The findings show why ski-destination adaptation should be evaluated together with mitigation, anticipatory governance, investment flexibility, and year-round carbon accounting. Among the 14 resorts in the two highest-risk pathways, six show no documented transition planning, indicating potential continuity-driven maladaptive exposure distinct from action-driven lock-in.

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