Climate change impacts on European electricity demand and supply until 2100

気候変動が2100年までの欧州の電力需要と供給に与える影響 (AI 翻訳)

Franziska Schöniger, Gustav Resch, Demet Suna, Peter Widhalm, Gerhard Totschnig, Nicolas Pardo-Garcia, Florian Hasengst, Herbert Formayer, Philipp Maier, David Leidinger

iScience📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-07-20#エネルギー転換Origin: EU対象セクター: power

DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2026.116818

原典: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2026.116818

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本研究は、欧州の電力需給を時間単位で提供するオープンデータセットSECURES-Energyを紹介。1981年から2100年までの需要と供給を、ERA5再解析とEURO-CORDEXシナリオに基づき推計。将来、冷房需要は最大317%増加する一方、暖房需要は最大40%減少し、洋上風力は最大9%減少するなど、気候変動が電力システムに大きな影響を与えることを示す。

English

This study introduces SECURES-Energy, an open-access dataset providing hourly electricity demand and supply for Europe from 1981 to 2100, based on ERA5 reanalysis and EURO-CORDEX scenarios. Results show significant climate-driven shifts: cooling demand rises up to +317%, heating demand falls up to -40%, and offshore wind declines up to -9% by end-century, highlighting vulnerabilities in renewable-based systems.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本では、再エネ導入拡大に伴い気候変動による電力需給への影響評価が重要。本データセットの手法は、日本の気候データを用いた同様の分析に応用可能で、SSBJ開示や統合報告書における気候リスク評価に貢献する。

In the global GX context

This dataset provides a robust framework for assessing climate impacts on renewable-based power systems, relevant to global energy transition planning. It offers insights for TCFD/ISSB-aligned climate risk assessments and supports adaptation strategies for power grids.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Provides a high-resolution dataset and methodology for modeling climate impacts on electricity systems, useful for energy system modeling and climate risk research.

🏢実務担当者:Offers data and insights for utilities and grid operators to plan for climate-driven changes in demand and supply, aiding in infrastructure investment decisions.

🏛政策担当者:Highlights the need for adaptation in energy planning and grid resilience, informing policy on renewable integration and demand-side management.

📄 Abstract（原文）

Renewable and electrified energy systems are highly weather-dependent, making them vulnerable to climate change. Energy system modeling therefore requires high-quality data that captures the spatiotemporal complexity of climate conditions. We present SECURES-Energy, an open-access dataset providing hourly electricity demand and supply data for Europe at the national level from 1981 to 2100. Historical data are derived from ERA5 reanalysis, while future projections use two EURO-CORDEX scenarios (RCP 4.5/RCP 8.5). The dataset includes onshore and offshore wind, solar photovoltaic (PV), and hydropower generation, as well as all electricity demand components such as heating, cooling, and mobility. Results indicate no consistent trends for solar PV and hydropower across Europe. Offshore wind declines by up to -4%/-3% by 2035-2064 and -6%/-9% by 2071-2100 relative to 1981-2010. Cooling demand rises sharply (up to +80%/+149% by mid-century; +129%/+317% by end-century), while heating demand falls (-19%/-24% by mid-century; -25%/-40% by end-century). These findings highlight substantial climate-driven shifts in future electricity demand and supply.

🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース

openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2026.116818first seen 2026-08-08 04:46:54

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gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。