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海外展開の再考：気候リスクと中国企業のクロスボーダーM&A

Rethinking overseas expansion: climate risk and Chinese corporations’ cross-border mergers and acquisitions (原題)

Yue Guo, Yangyulong Wu

Frontiers in Environmental Science📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-09-14#気候リスクOrigin: CN経営インパクト: 資金調達対象セクター: cross_sector
DOI: 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1896051
原典: https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2026.1896051
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🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

中国A株上場企業の2000〜2023年の54,389社・年データを用い、企業レベルの気候リスクがクロスボーダーM&Aの開始確率を有意に低下させることを示す。メカニズムとして企業価値の低下とグリーン投資への資源再配分が働き、慢性物理リスクと移行リスクが主因。グリーンM&Aは影響を受けにくく、ESG性能や経営陣の海外経験が負の効果を緩和する。

English

Using 54,389 Chinese A-share firm-year observations (2000–2023), this study finds higher firm-level climate risk significantly lowers the probability of initiating cross-border M&A. Channels include reduced firm value and resource reallocation toward green investment, driven mainly by chronic physical and transition risk. Green M&A is more resilient, and stronger ESG performance and executive overseas experience mitigate the effect.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

気候リスクが企業の海外展開・資本配分を制約する実証は、SSBJ開示や移行計画が投資・M&A戦略に与える影響を考える日本企業・投資家に示唆を与える。特にグリーンM&Aの耐性は、脱炭素を成長機会とする日本企業の戦略立案に有用。

In the global GX context

This paper links firm-level climate risk to cross-border M&A decisions, extending disclosure scholarship into corporate strategy and capital allocation. It complements TCFD/ISSB transition-planning debates by showing how climate-risk attention shapes deal initiation and post-deal performance, with green deals proving more resilient.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:気候リスクが企業の海外M&A開始確率を下げる因果的証拠と、資源再配分・企業価値のメカニズムを提供する。

🏢実務担当者:気候リスク管理とESG性能向上が海外M&Aの実行力と事後パフォーマンスに影響する点を、M&A・サステナビリティ部門の意思決定に活用できる。

🏛政策担当者:気候リスク開示・移行政策が企業の対外投資行動に与える影響を考慮した政策設計の参考になる。

📄 Abstract（原文）

We examine how firm-level climate risk affects cross-border merger and acquisition (M&A) initiation using 54,389 firm-year observations for Chinese A-share listed firms from 2000 to 2023. The results show that higher climate risk is associated with a significantly lower probability of initiating cross-border M&A. This finding remains robust across alternative measures, clustering levels, model specifications, placebo tests, lagged-variable analyses, an instrumental-variable strategy, and an event study based on an exogenous climate shock. Mechanism analyses provide evidence consistent with two channels: climate risk lowers firm value and reallocates financial and managerial resources toward green investment, thereby reducing the resources available for foreign acquisitions. The negative relationship is primarily driven by chronic physical risk and transition risk, whereas acute physical risk becomes significant only among climate-sensitive firms. The relationship is stronger among firms outside high-carbon industries and substantially weaker for green cross-border M&A, indicating that green acquisitions are relatively more resilient to climate-related pressures. Transaction-margin analyses further show that climate risk reduces the unconditional number of cross-border transactions but does not significantly affect completion probability or deal value conditional on initiation. Stronger ESG performance and greater executive overseas experience mitigate the negative relationship. Finally, among firms that undertake cross-border M&A, a larger climate risk attention gap is associated with lower cumulative abnormal returns, less favorable changes in operating performance, and higher financial leverage. These findings show that climate risk constrains firms’ foreign expansion decisions while firm capabilities, transaction characteristics, and climate-risk attention shape the extent and consequences of this constraint.

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