Exploring internal and external drivers of hydrogen deployment in the energy transition
エネルギー移行における水素導入の内的・外的要因の探求 (AI 翻訳)
Zhiyuan Xie, Ricardo Fernandes, Gorm Bruun Andresen
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、PyPSA-Eurモデルを拡張し、国別の炭素制約を組み込んで、3つの炭素予算のもとで2025年から2050年までの欧州のエネルギー移行経路をシミュレートした。内部要因と炭素予算の厳格さがEUの水素導入のばらつきの大部分を説明し、2050年の水素需要はほぼゼロから3,200TWh/年まで変動する。ブルー水素は炭素回収・貯蔵の制約により限定的であり、ハード・トゥ・アブセクターとの競合を示唆する。
English
This paper extends the open-source PyPSA-Eur model with country-level carbon constraints to simulate European energy transition pathways from 2025 to 2050 under three carbon budgets. It finds that internal drivers (e.g., electrolyzer costs) and carbon budget stringency explain most variation in EU hydrogen deployment. Endogenous hydrogen demand ranges from nearly zero to 3,200 TWh/year, while blue hydrogen is limited by sequestration scarcity and carbon budgets, implying competition with hard-to-abate sectors.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本でも水素戦略が進められているが、本論文は欧州の系統モデルを用いて水素導入の不確実性を定量的に示している。日本の水素ロードマップ策定やCCUSとの競合評価に参考となる。
In the global GX context
This study provides system-level insights into hydrogen deployment under varying carbon budgets and internal costs, relevant for global decarbonization pathways. It highlights the competition between blue hydrogen and other hard-to-abate sectors, informing transition finance and asset-stranding risk assessments.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:A valuable system-level model for studying hydrogen's role in energy transition under carbon constraints.
🏢実務担当者:Can inform corporate hydrogen investment decisions by highlighting uncertainty ranges and competition with CCS.
🏛政策担当者:Useful for designing hydrogen strategies and carbon budgets that account for trade-offs between hydrogen colors and hard-to-abate sectors.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Hydrogen is increasingly recognized as important for deep decarbonization, but its future deployment remains highly uncertain. Here, we extend the open-source PyPSA-Eur model with country-level carbon constraints and simulate European energy transition pathways from 2025 to 2050 under three carbon budgets. We distinguish external drivers, such as hydrogen use in transport and industry, from internal drivers, such as electrolyzer costs, CO<sub>2</sub> capture rates, and sequestration availability. Results show that, within our scenario design, internal drivers and carbon budget stringency explain most variation in EU hydrogen deployment. Endogenous 2050 hydrogen demand ranges from nearly zero to 2,200 TWh/year, and widespread green hydrogen uptake could raise demand to 3,200 TWh/year. Blue hydrogen remains more limited, constrained by sequestration scarcity and tighter carbon budgets, implying competition with other hard-to-abate sectors and greater asset-stranding risk. By quantifying the boundaries and potential evolution of hydrogen deployment, this study provides system-level insights beyond simplified hydrogen roadmap assumptions.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2026.116597first seen 2026-07-20 04:45:13
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