Mitigation implications of remaining carbon budget allocation rules for Mediterranean countries

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:GX researchers studying carbon budget accounting, equity principles, and national/regional mitigation pathways will find the comparative analysis of allocation rules useful.

🏢実務担当者:Corporate sustainability teams may use the insights on carbon budget depletion timelines (2035) to stress-test their decarbonization strategies, though the paper is policy-focused.

🏛政策担当者:Policymakers involved in NDC updating and regional climate cooperation should consider the implications of allocation rules for burden-sharing and the need for rapid reductions.

The Mediterranean Basin is a climate change hotspot, experiencing accelerated warming and strong environmental vulnerability. Mediterranean Sea surface temperatures have increased by approximately 1.5 °C over the past four decades, underscoring the urgency of coordinated mitigation efforts. In this context, this study examines how alternative allocation criteria for distributing the remaining carbon budget compatible with the Paris Agreement (well below 2 °C) affect emission pathways among the 21 signatory countries of the Barcelona Convention. Using a mitigation pathway derived from the Global Change Analysis Model, the analysis evaluates emissions trajectories from 2030—anchored in current Nationally Determined Contributions—through 2100. Five allocation principles are assessed: Grandfathering, Per Capita, Per Capita Convergence, Equal Cumulative Per Capita, and Ability to Pay, each reflecting different trade-offs between equity and feasibility. Results indicate that, irrespective of the allocation rule, rapid and sustained decarbonisation is unavoidable. At current emission levels, the regional carbon budget would be exhausted by 2035, requiring average annual reductions of approximately 6% between 2030 and 2050 to meet global targets. While population-based criteria yield the largest regional budget and are more equitable, they imply more disruptive transitions. In contrast, emissions-based approaches are more feasible but risk reinforcing existing inequalities. These findings highlight significant implications for fossil fuel-dependent economies and stress the importance of regional cooperation. The Barcelona Convention emerges as a key platform to facilitate equitable burden-sharing and coordinated climate action in the Mediterranean region.

• Research Square https://doi.org/10.12688/openreseurope.24364.1first seen 2026-07-22 04:35:41