Pax Silica and the Philippine Economic Transition: A Dynamic Recursive CGE Assessment of Infrastructure-Led Development Amid Geopolitical Realignment
パックス・シリカとフィリピンの経済移行：地政学的再編の中でのインフラ主導開発の動学的再帰CGE評価 (AI 翻訳)
Prince Edike, Philip G. Camara
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、米国主導の経済安全保障枠組み「パックス・シリカ」がフィリピン経済に与える影響を、動学的再帰CGEモデルで分析。建設投資段階ではGDPが拡大する一方、資源逼迫により不平等・水ストレス・CO2排出が悪化。政策介入（財政リサイクル、再生可能エネルギー義務、水料金）がこれらの悪化を緩和することを示す。
English
This study uses a dynamic recursive CGE model to assess the impact of the US-led Pax Silica initiative on the Philippine economy. While construction investment boosts GDP, resource squeeze worsens inequality, water stress, and CO2 emissions. Policy interventions such as fiscal recycling, renewable mandates, and water tariffs mitigate these adverse effects.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本企業にとって、フィリピンでの半導体・AI関連投資はサプライチェーン多様化の一環。本稿のCO2排出・水ストレス分析は、現地での環境対応やESGリスク評価に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
The study contributes to global discourse on infrastructure-led development and environmental trade-offs, relevant for ISSB-aligned disclosure on transition risks and opportunities in emerging markets.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:CGEモデルによる開発政策と環境・不平等のトレードオフ分析の事例として有用。
🏢実務担当者:新興国でのインフラ投資に伴う環境・社会リスクの定量評価に活用可能。
🏛政策担当者:経済特区政策と環境規制の整合性を検討する際の参考になる。
📄 Abstract（原文）
This study presents a dynamic recursive Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) analysis of the Pax Silica Initiative—a US-led multilateral economic security framework established in December 2025 to strengthen semiconductor manufacturing, artificial intelligence technologies, critical minerals supply chains, and secure data ecosystems. The Philippines formally joined the initiative in April 2026, designating a 1,620-hectare AI-native industrial and manufacturing enclave within New Clark City, Tarlac. Using a ten-year recursive dynamic CGE model calibrated with Philippine-specific data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), Department of Energy (DOE), Mines and Geosciences Bureau (MGB), and the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), this study simulates three distinct phases of economic adjustment: (1) Construction & Investment Inflow Shock (2026–2028), (2) Resource & Supply Squeeze (2029–2032), and (3) Geopolitical Shock & Steady State (2033–2035). The model incorporates sectoral capital accumulation, nested CES production functions with energy and water constraints, household income distribution across ten deciles, and Human Development Index (HDI) components. Results indicate that while GDP expands from $494.2 billion to approximately $580 billion during the construction phase, the subsequent resource squeeze induces significant polarization: the Gini coefficient rises from 0.44 to 0.49, water stress escalates from 28.5% to 35.6%, and CO₂ emissions increase from 140 to 180 million tons. However, HDI improves modestly from 0.720 to 0.758, driven primarily by income gains. Policy simulations reveal that fiscal recycling (Scenario A) reduces inequality to 0.46, renewable energy mandates (Scenario B) limit emissions to 150 million tons, and water tariffs with recycling (Scenario C) contain water stress at 30.2%. The study concludes that without targeted policy interventions, Pax Silica risks exacerbating structural inequalities and environmental degradation despite delivering aggregate growth nevertheless, to address the CGE simulation's findings of concerning outcomes, and the study further recommends operationalizing Roxas's area economics through community-anchored economic zones and institutionalizing Ostrom's polycentric governance for common-pool resource management to ensure inclusive and sustainable development outcomes.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- semanticscholar https://rsisinternational.org/journals/ijriss/uploads/vol10-iss15-pg1151-1167-202608_pdf.pdffirst seen 2026-08-15 05:17:26 · last seen 2026-08-17 05:17:16
🔔 こうした論文の新着を逃したくない方は キーワードアラート に登録（無料・3キーワードまで）。
gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。 最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。