An “Inverted U” Impact of Carbon Trading Prices on Carbon Emissions—Evidence from Chin
炭素取引価格が炭素排出に与える逆U字型の影響—中国からのエビデンス (AI 翻訳)
Xiyuan Qiao, Xinmeng Tang
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、炭素排出権取引市場における炭素価格と二酸化炭素排出量の間に逆U字型の関係があることを、工業企業の利益を媒介として理論的・実証的に示した。2005～2023年の中国300都市のパネルデータを用いた連続差分の差分モデルにより、一定の閾値を超えると炭素価格が排出削減効果を持つが、低価格ではむしろ排出が増加する非線形効果を確認した。地域別分析では北部や長江流域で効果が顕著である。
English
This study investigates the non-linear relationship between carbon trading prices and CO2 emissions, mediated by industrial enterprise profits. Using panel data from 300 Chinese cities (2005–2023) and a continuous difference-in-differences model, it finds an inverted U-shaped impact: low carbon prices may increase emissions, while only prices above a threshold achieve reductions. Regional heterogeneity shows stronger effects in northern regions and the Yangtze River Basin.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
中国の炭素市場の価格効果に関する実証研究は、日本の排出量取引制度（東京都や埼玉県の制度など）の設計や、将来的な全国規模のカーボンプライシング導入の検討において参考となる。特に、低価格帯での逆効果の可能性は、政策立案時に注意すべき点を示唆する。
In the global GX context
The empirical evidence of an inverted U-shaped effect of carbon prices on emissions contributes to global carbon pricing literature by highlighting the risk of perverse outcomes at low price levels. This has implications for the design of emissions trading systems (e.g., EU ETS, emerging Asian markets) and for setting floor prices or adjusting allowance supply.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides empirical evidence of non-linear carbon pricing effects, relevant for further causal analysis and mechanism testing.
🏢実務担当者:Companies in carbon markets should monitor price thresholds to anticipate asymmetric cost impacts.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the need to set carbon prices above a critical threshold to avoid counterproductive emission increases.
📄 Abstract（原文）
From the perspective of industrial enterprise profits, this study explores the theoretical mechanism underlying the inverted U- shaped relationship between carbon trading prices in the carbon emissions trading market and carbon dioxide emissions. Using panel data from 300 Chinese cities covering the period 2005–2023, a continuous difference-in-differences model was employed to examine the non-linear effects of carbon trading prices on carbon emissions. The results indicate that carbon prices in local carbon markets may lead to increased emissions when prices are low, while emission reduction effects emerge only when prices exceed a critical threshold. Robustness checks support the baseline results. Mediating mechanism tests reveal that industrial enterprise profits serve as the channel through which carbon prices exert their inverted U-shaped impact on emissions. The regional heterogeneity analysis revealed that the inverted U-shaped impact of carbon prices on carbon emissions is more pronounced in northern regions and the Yangtze River Basin compared to the Pearl River Basin, with a stronger transmission effect.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.404835first seen 2026-07-21 04:56:27
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gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。 最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。