Nature-based solutions could reduce potential human‑wildlife conflict expansion in China’s drylands
自然を基盤とした解決策は中国乾燥地における人間と野生動物の衝突拡大を軽減できる可能性がある (AI 翻訳)
Yingqing Su, Chengpeng Lu, Qi Feng, Wei Liu, Haimeng Liu, Honghua Xia, Jutao Zhang
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、システムダイナミクス、PLUSモデル、BIOMOD2を統合し、中国乾燥地における人間と野生動物の衝突の将来予測を行った。SSP5-8.5シナリオでは、2100年までに衝突リスク地域がほぼ2倍になると予測され、オアシス-砂漠移行帯がホットスポットとなる。自然を基盤とした解決策（土地利用制限、生態系回復、保護区管理）が衝突リスクを軽減し、生物多様性と持続可能な開発に貢献する可能性を示す。
English
This study integrates system dynamics, PLUS model, and BIOMOD2 to project future human-wildlife conflict in China's drylands. Under SSP5-8.5, conflict-prone areas could nearly double by 2100, with oasis-desert transition zones as hotspots. Nature-based solutions such as land-use restrictions, ecological restoration, and protected area management could reduce spatial overlap, supporting biodiversity and sustainable development.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本では、生物多様性保全と気候変動適応の統合的アプローチが重要視されており、本研究のNbSの評価手法は、日本の生態系を活用した防災・減災（Eco-DRR）や30by30目標の達成に向けた政策立案に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This study provides a modeling framework for assessing human-wildlife conflict under climate change, relevant to global frameworks like the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. It offers insights for integrating nature-based solutions into sustainability strategies, applicable to regions facing similar dryland challenges.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides an integrated modeling approach for projecting human-wildlife conflict under climate scenarios, useful for biodiversity and climate risk research.
🏢実務担当者:Offers evidence for designing nature-based solutions in land-use planning and protected area management to mitigate human-wildlife conflict.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the need to incorporate NbS into biodiversity and climate adaptation policies, aligning with global frameworks like the Kunming-Montreal GBF.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Human-wildlife conflict in drylands is worsening due to climate change and increasing human pressures, yet its spatiotemporal dynamics remain poorly understood. Here, we present an integrated modeling framework combining system dynamics, the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, and the BIOMOD2 species distribution platform to project future potential conflict trends under three socioeconomic pathways (i.e., SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). Our results show that 23,900 km 2 of drylands are currently potentially affected by spatial overlap with conflict-prone areas, with projections under SSP5-8.5 suggesting that potential conflict areas could nearly double by 2100. Spatial simulations highlight oasis-desert transition zones, particularly near protected areas, as key hotspots where increasing aridity and habitat fragmentation drive heightened resource competition. Our analysis suggests that management aligned with Nature-based Solutions principles—including land-use restrictions, ecological restoration and protected area management—could reduce spatial overlap between human land use and wildlife habitat, supporting biodiversity and sustainable development. These findings underscore the need to integrate such strategies into global sustainability frameworks, like the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, to enhance the resilience of dryland ecosystems amid rapid environmental change.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geosus.2026.100532first seen 2026-08-08 05:00:13
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