Effect of climate change on tea production in Bangladesh: economic implications for domestic consumption, export earnings and trade deficit
気候変動がバングラデシュの茶生産に与える影響：国内消費、輸出収入、貿易赤字への経済的含意 (AI 翻訳)
Sudip Dey
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
バングラデシュの茶生産に対する気候変動の影響を1971～2022年の時系列データで分析。湿度、降雨、気温、CO2排出の各変数が生産に与える効果を定量評価し、国内消費の増加と輸出収入の減少が貿易赤字を拡大させていると指摘。政策提言として関税や輸出促進策、技術導入などを提示。
English
This study analyzes the impact of climate variables (humidity, rainfall, temperature, CO2) on Bangladesh's tea production using 1971-2022 time series data. It finds that maximum humidity and temperature harm production, while rainfall and CO2 boost it. Rising domestic consumption and falling exports have caused a persistent trade deficit. Policy recommendations include tariffs, export incentives, and technological upgrades.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
本論文はバングラデシュ事例だが、気候リスクが一次産品の貿易収支に与える影響を示しており、日本企業がサプライチェーン上の気候変動リスクを評価する際の参考になる。特に茶の輸入依存度が高い国への示唆を含む。
In the global GX context
This paper provides empirical evidence on how climate change affects agricultural commodity trade balances, relevant to global discussions on climate adaptation and food security. It highlights the need for climate-resilient agriculture and trade policy adjustments.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Useful for empirical climate-economy modeling of crop production and trade, especially for South Asian contexts.
🏢実務担当者:Tea industry stakeholders can note the specific climate sensitivities and the importance of adapting to humidity and temperature changes.
🏛政策担当者:Offers evidence-based recommendations on tariffs, subsidies, and technology adoption to mitigate trade deficits from climate impacts.
📄 Abstract（原文）
This paper explores climate change’s effects on Bangladesh’s tea production, focusing on the economic consequences for domestic consumption, export earnings, and trade deficits. This study utilizes annual time series data from 1971 to 2022 to analyze the influence of climate variables on tea production. The findings indicate that while both maximum and minimum humidity negatively affect tea production, only maximum humidity has a significant impact, suggesting optimal production at moderate humidity levels. Rainfall plays a crucial role by enhancing root growth, soil moisture, nutrient supply, and pest prevention, significantly boosting tea production. Temperature effects are mixed; minimum temperature supports production, whereas maximum temperature has harmful effects, such as heatwaves, pest outbreaks, and reduced photosynthesis. Additionally, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions enhance both tea production and leaf quality by improving photosynthesis and respiration. From 2002 to 2021, domestic tea consumption surged significantly due to population growth, rising incomes, urbanization, changing preferences, and perceived health benefits. Conversely, export earnings declined significantly, driven by high domestic consumption, falling global prices, limited tea varieties, and increased international competition. The study identifies a persistent trade deficit over the past 12 years, linked to high production costs, low productivity, poor quality, and insufficient innovation. To mitigate these challenges, the study recommends strategies including import tariffs, export incentives, infrastructure improvements, higher labor wages, the creation of new tea varieties, improving quality, adopting modern technologies, and fiscal and monetary policy adjustments to boost export earnings and achieve trade balance. Bangladesh J. Agril. Res. 49(1): 73-89, March 2024
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- semanticscholar https://www.banglajol.info/index.php/BJAR/article/download/91828/59072first seen 2026-07-23 05:55:25
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