Dynamic Connectedness among Finance, Energy Transition, Fossil Energy, and Technology in Türkiye and Egypt: A TVP-VAR Approach
トルコとエジプトにおける金融、エネルギー転換、化石エネルギー、テクノロジーの動的な連関：TVP-VARアプローチ (AI 翻訳)
Alaa Said Gamal Khalil Alsisi, Melike Aktaş Bozkurt
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究はTVP-VARモデルを用いて、トルコとエジプトにおけるクリーンエネルギー、化石エネルギー、金融、テクノロジー部門間の時間変動するスピルオーバー効果を分析。エネルギー安全保障ショック時にシステム全体の連関が強まり、クリーンエネルギーは化石燃料に比べスピルオーバー伝播が弱いが、危機時には連関性が高まることを示した。為替レートが連関性を増幅する重要な要因であることも明らかに。
English
This study employs a TVP-VAR framework to analyze time-varying spillovers among clean energy, fossil energy, finance, and technology sectors in Turkey and Egypt. Results show that system-wide connectedness intensifies during energy security shocks, with clean energy exhibiting weaker but crisis-dependent spillover transmission compared to fossil energy. Exchange rates are key amplifiers of connectedness, highlighting the need for coordinated macro-financial and energy policies.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
トルコ・エジプトを対象とするが、エネルギー転換のレジリエンスがマクロ金融安定性に依存する点は、新興国に投資する日本企業やエネルギー安全保障政策にも示唆を与える。特に、クリーンエネルギー部門が危機時に化石燃料との連関を強める「不完全なデカップリング」は、日本のESG投資戦略のリスク管理に活用できる。
In the global GX context
Focusing on emerging markets, the paper reveals that clean energy financial integration with fossil fuel sectors remains incomplete and crisis-contingent. This has global implications for transition finance and portfolio diversification: investors and policymakers must account for regime-dependent correlations between energy transition assets and traditional energy/financial sectors. The finding that exchange rates amplify spillovers adds a macro-financial dimension to energy transition resilience.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides empirical evidence on time-varying spillovers between clean and fossil energy sectors in emerging markets, useful for understanding financial integration during crises.
🏢実務担当者:Highlights the incomplete decoupling of clean energy from fossil energy and finance, informing portfolio diversification and risk management.
🏛政策担当者:Emphasizes the need for coordinated energy-financial policy frameworks to enhance energy transition resilience.
📄 Abstract（原文）
This study examines time-varying spillover dynamics among the clean energy, fossil energy, financial, and technology/telecommunications sectors in Türkiye and Egypt amid successive geopolitical and macro-financial shocks. Using daily data from January 2021 to October 2025, a TVP-VAR connectedness framework is employed to capture evolving system-wide, directional, and network-based spillovers across the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia–Ukraine conflict, and the subsequent Middle East escalation. The results indicate persistently elevated but regime-dependent interconnectedness, with system-wide spillovers tightening sharply during major energy-security shocks and partially normalizing thereafter. Spillover transmission is asymmetric and concentrated: Turkish financial institutions and fossil-energy-linked firms form a dominant transmission core, while Egyptian sectors integrate more selectively and tend to act as net receivers. Clean-energy-linked equities exhibit relatively weaker and less persistent spillover transmission than fossil-energy sectors, suggesting partial resilience; however, their connectedness increases during energy-security crises, indicating that financial decoupling remains incomplete and highly regime-contingent. Technology and telecom sectors occupy peripheral positions, responding to shocks without persistently driving contagion. Exchange rates emerge as key amplifiers of connectedness during crises. Overall, the findings highlight that energy transition resilience in emerging markets depends critically on macro-financial stability and coordinated energy–financial policy frameworks.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2026.2687076first seen 2026-06-17 04:56:35 · last seen 2026-06-17 07:10:16
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