Projected Increases in Heat-Related Emergency Department Imaging Utilization Under Climate Change Scenarios
気候変動シナリオ下での熱関連救急画像診断利用の増加予測 (AI 翻訳)
Eray Yilmaz, Chloe Desroche, Pierre Masselot, Anish Kirpalani, Birgit Ertl-Wagner, Julien Aguet, Heidi Schmidt, Michael N. Patlas, Kate Hanneman
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、気候変動による温暖化が救急部門での画像診断需要に与える影響を予測。トロントの5つの救急部門のデータを用いて気温と画像利用の関連を推定し、将来の気候シナリオ下で温度起因の過剰画像診断数を2092年まで予測した。低排出シナリオでは0.32%、高排出では1.25%の増加が見込まれ、カナダ全体では年間最大5万5千件以上の過剰検査が予測される。
English
This study projects that climate-driven warming will increase emergency department imaging utilization. Using data from 5 EDs in Toronto and 23 climate models, the authors estimate temperature-attributable excess imaging from 2023-2092 under different emissions scenarios. Increases range from 0.32% (low emissions) to 1.25% (high emissions) by 2083-2092, corresponding to annual excess imaging of up to 55,475 across Canada.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本の医療システムも気候変動の影響を受ける可能性があり、本論文の手法は日本の救急医療の需要予測にも応用できる。ただし、日本のGX政策（SSBJ等）との直接的な関連は薄い。
In the global GX context
This paper provides a methodology for projecting climate-driven increases in healthcare demand, relevant for global health system adaptation planning. While not directly about disclosure or finance, it underscores the need for climate-resilient infrastructure—a growing consideration in TCFD/ISSB risk assessments for healthcare sectors.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Researchers in climate-health adaptation can use the exposure-response framework to model similar impacts in other regions.
🏢実務担当者:Hospital administrators and health system planners can use these projections to anticipate future imaging demand and plan capacity.
🏛政策担当者:Policymakers should consider climate adaptation funding for healthcare infrastructure to manage projected increases in emergency imaging.
📄 Abstract（原文）
BACKGROUND: The impact of climate-driven warming on future demand for medical imaging remains unclear. PURPOSE: To project temperature-attributable excess imaging volumes requested by emergency departments (ED) under future climate scenarios. METHODS: Associations between ambient temperature and imaging utilization were estimated during the baseline period (2013-2022) using data from 5 EDs in Toronto. Baseline exposure-response relationships were applied to statistically downscaled, bias-corrected daily temperature projections through 2092 from an ensemble of 23 general circulation models. Temperature-attributable excess ED imaging volumes were projected by decade under 3 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). RESULTS: < .001). Temperature-attributable emergency medical imaging utilization is projected to increase under all climate scenarios. Relative increases ranged from 0.04% to 0.10% in the early period (2023-2032), with a 3- to 12-fold increase over the study period. By 2083 to 2092, temperature-attributable emergency imaging utilization is projected to increase by 0.32% (95% CI, 0.28-0.37) under the SSP1-2.6 low-emissions scenario and by 1.25% (95% CI, 1.08-1.43) under the SSP3-7.0 high-emissions scenario. This corresponds to annual excess imaging studies attributable to rising temperatures of 570 (95% CI, 488-655) to 2219 (95% CI, 1922-2528) locally, and 13 900 (95% CI, 11 900-15 950) to 55 475 (95% CI, 48 050-63 200) across Canada. CONCLUSION: Climate-driven warming is projected to increase emergency imaging utilization across all emissions scenarios. These findings support the need for climate-informed radiology planning and integration of adaptation and mitigation strategies to sustain health system capacity.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1177/08465371261457322first seen 2026-06-19 04:36:38
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