The Electoral Impact of Housing Climate Policy: Evidence from Germany
住宅気候政策の選挙への影響：ドイツからの証拠 (AI 翻訳)
Dorothea Kistinger, Noah Kögel, Nicolas Koch, Matthias Kalkuhl
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
ドイツの建築エネルギー法改正（GEG）が世帯のコスト負担に与える影響を、建物データを用いて推定し、州選挙での投票行動への影響を分析。極右・保守野党の得票率が上昇し、与党が低下することを示し、気候政策の政治的反発を緩和するための総合的アプローチの重要性を強調。
English
This study examines the electoral consequences of Germany's Building Energy Act amendment, using building-level data to approximate household compliance costs. Difference-in-differences and triple-difference models reveal significant vote share gains for far-right and conservative opposition parties, and losses for incumbent parties, particularly in rural areas, highlighting the need for holistic climate policy design to mitigate political backlash.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本のGX政策（例：断熱改修義務化や住宅の脱炭素化）においても、世帯へのコスト負担が政治的反発を招く可能性を示唆。政策設計における公平性と社会的受容性の考慮が重要であり、日本の読者にとって示唆に富む。
In the global GX context
This paper contributes to global understanding of the political economy of climate policy, particularly the distributional consequences of building decarbonization. It offers evidence relevant for policymakers in countries implementing similar heating transition policies, such as the EU's Fit for 55 and national building codes.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides empirical evidence on the electoral costs of climate policies, useful for political economy and climate policy research.
🏢実務担当者:Highlights the importance of stakeholder engagement and cost mitigation in corporate climate advocacy and policy engagement.
🏛政策担当者:Demonstrates the risk of political backlash from poorly designed climate policies, emphasizing the need for socially equitable transition strategies.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Abstract The transition to carbon-neutral residential heating poses extraordinary policy challenges to societies in Europe and beyond. In this paper, we study the electoral consequences of an amendment to the German Building Energy Act (GEG) aimed at phasing-out fossil-based heating systems. We use granular building stock data to approximate heterogeneity in household compliance costs and apply difference-in-differences and triple difference models to estimate its impacts on vote shares at the municipal level. For the state elections in Bavaria and Hesse, we find relative gains for the far-right (+2.4 pp) and conservative opposition parties (+6.5 pp) and losses for the incumbent federal government parties (−2.9 pp) in the baseline specification of our model. For the latter two, the effects are more pronounced in rural municipalities. These findings highlight the importance of holistic climate policy approaches that account for salient and heterogeneous costs to mitigate political backlash.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-026-01092-3first seen 2026-08-13 04:58:06
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