建設用地の拡大と経済集約化が黄河流域各省の土地利用由来炭素排出を規定する
Construction-Land Expansion and Economic Intensification Shape Land-Use Carbon Emissions in the Yellow River Basin Provinces (原題)
Yixin Pu, Yuxiao Ren, Yating Chen, Aobo Liu
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
2010〜2025年の30m土地被覆データと省別統計を統合し、黄河流域9省の土地利用転換と炭素排出を定量化。建設用地は38.87%拡大し、土地利用純排出は69.82%増加。LMDI分解では経済産出密度が最大の増加要因、省エネ進展が最大の抑制要因と示された。2030年は生態保護シナリオで2124.72、都市拡大シナリオで2866.55百万t Cと推計。
English
Combining 30 m land-cover maps (2010-2025) with provincial statistics, this study quantifies land-use transitions and carbon emissions across nine Yellow River Basin provinces. Construction land grew 38.87%, and net land-use emissions rose 69.82%. LMDI decomposition shows economic-output density drove the largest increase, while falling energy intensity offset emissions. 2030 projections range from 2124.72 to 2866.55 Mt C depending on land-use and growth trajectories.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
中国の地域炭素収支と土地利用規制の実証例として、日本の自治体・企業がScope 3や土地利用由来排出を把握する際の方法論的参照になる。ただしSSBJ・有報・統合報告書との直接接続は薄く、日本のGX開示実務への示唆は限定的。
In the global GX context
Adds regional empirical evidence on how land-use planning and economic intensification jointly drive carbon emissions, relevant to land-sector accounting under IPCC guidelines and emerging nature/land-use disclosure discussions. It offers a methodological template (LMDI + random forest + scenario analysis) but does not directly engage TCFD/ISSB/CSRD disclosure frameworks.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:LMDI分解とランダムフォレストを組み合わせた土地利用由来排出の地域分析手法として参考になる。
🏢実務担当者:土地利用・建設関連の排出把握やScope 3上流（土地転換）評価の方法論的示唆を得られる。
🏛政策担当者:土地利用計画と省エネ政策の整合が地域炭素排出に与える影響を示す政策参考事例。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Land-use change affects regional carbon accounting through ecological conversion and the concentration of energy-intensive economic activity. We combined 30 m China Land Cover Dataset maps for 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2025 with provincial socioeconomic and energy statistics to quantify land-use transitions and carbon emissions across nine Yellow River Basin provinces. Construction-land-associated emissions were decomposed using the logarithmic mean Divisia index, factors associated with land expansion were examined using random-forest models, and three 2030 scenarios were evaluated. Construction land expanded by 38.87% from 2010 to 2025, with 71.33% of new construction land converted from cropland and 17.75% from grassland. Net land-use carbon emissions increased by 69.82%, from 1139.06 to 1934.33 million t C. Economic-output density contributed 1144.84 million t C to the increase in construction-land-associated emissions, compared with 576.11 million t C from land expansion, whereas declining energy intensity offset 922.72 million t C. Projected 2030 emissions ranged from 2124.72 million t C under ecological protection to 2866.55 million t C under urban expansion. Construction-land expansion was substantial, but economic-output density made the larger positive contribution to historical emission growth. The projected 2030 estimates depended on the combined trajectories of construction-land demand, economic growth, and energy intensity. These findings highlight the importance of coordinating land-use planning, economic development, and energy-efficiency improvement for sustainable low-carbon transitions.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.3390/su18179153first seen 2026-09-11 05:09:28
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