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Land-Use Change and Carbon Balance Under Climate Change Scenarios: Implications for Sustainable Land-Use Strategies

気候変動シナリオ下での土地利用変化と炭素収支：持続可能な土地利用戦略への示唆 (AI 翻訳)

Shan Long, JingLu Li

Sustainability📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-06-22#炭素会計Origin: CN
DOI: 10.3390/su18126371
原典: https://doi.org/10.3390/su18126371

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本研究は、中国南京市を事例に、2000年から2020年までの土地利用変化が炭素排出・吸収に与えた影響を分析し、SSP-RCPシナリオ下での2030年の将来予測を行った。土地利用シミュレーションとカーボンアカウンティングを統合し、土地転用効果と内部強度変化効果を区別する手法を提案。建設用地の拡大と排出強度の増加が純排出増加の主因であり、全シナリオで2030年の排出量が2020年を上回る結果となった。持続可能な土地利用政策への示唆を提供する。

English

This study investigates land-use change impacts on carbon balance in Nanjing, China from 2000-2020 and projects 2030 under SSP-RCP scenarios. By integrating land-use simulation and carbon accounting, it distinguishes conversion effects from intensity effects. Construction land expansion and higher emission intensity are the main drivers of net emission increases, with 2030 emissions exceeding 2020 under all scenarios. Findings support integrating carbon considerations into spatial planning.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本でも都市化・カーボンニュートラル目標の下で土地利用転換と炭素収支の関係が重要視されている。本論文の手法（土地利用シミュレーションと炭素会計の結合、寄与度分析）は、日本の都市計画や国土利用計画における低炭素化策の評価に応用可能。特にSSP-RCPシナリオを用いた将来予測は、日本の自治体や政策評価にも参考になる。

In the global GX context

Globally, this paper contributes to the growing literature on land-use carbon accounting under climate scenarios, complementing IPCC-related assessments. The distinction between land conversion and intensity effects provides a methodological advance applicable to other regions. The findings underscore the carbon cost of urban expansion, relevant for countries balancing development and climate goals under the Paris Agreement.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:The integrated simulation-accounting framework and contribution-sensitivity analysis offer a replicable method for land-use carbon studies in other cities.

🏢実務担当者:Urban and regional planners can use the insights on carbon costs of different land conversions to prioritize low-carbon spatial strategies.

🏛政策担当者:Highlights the necessity of coordinating urban growth control with carbon reduction targets, supporting integrated land-use and climate policies.

📄 Abstract（原文）

Rapid urbanization and climate change are reshaping land-use systems, intensifying conflicts among urban growth, cultivated land conservation, and ecosystem protection. Understanding how land-use change affects carbon balance is important for designing sustainable land management and climate-resilient spatial planning. Taking Nanjing, China, as a case study, this study investigates how land-use change shaped carbon emissions, carbon sequestration, and net carbon emissions from 2000 to 2020 and further evaluates their future changes in 2030 under SSP–RCP scenarios. By integrating land-use simulation, carbon accounting, and contribution–sensitivity analysis, this study distinguishes land-use conversion effects from intra-type intensity change effects associated with changes in carbon emission or sequestration intensity within unchanged land categories. From 2000 to 2020, Nanjing experienced a substantial increase in net carbon emissions, with construction land expansion and higher emission intensity of construction land serving as the primary drivers. Although the carbon sink function was still mainly supported by cultivated land and forest land, land conversion and changes in sequestration intensity weakened the regional carbon balance. Under all SSP–RCP scenarios, simulated net carbon emissions for 2030 exceed the 2020 level, even though lower carbon intensity under SSP1–2.6 can partially mitigate emission growth. Conversion to construction land shows the highest carbon cost, especially when cultivated or ecological land is occupied. These findings highlight the need to coordinate urban expansion control, farmland protection, ecological restoration, and low-carbon industrial transformation. The study offers empirical support for improving sustainable land management and guiding spatial planning toward low-carbon development.

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