← 論文一覧に戻る

集計影響を超えて：イタリアにおけるEU炭素国境調整メカニズムの経済・競争力効果の分解分析

Beyond Aggregate Impacts: Decomposing the Economic and Competitiveness Effects of the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism in Italy (原題)

Ainura Uzagalieva, Andrea Molocchi, Federica Odifreddi

Crossrefプレプリント2026-01-01#炭素価格経営インパクト: 調達リスク対象セクター: manufacturing
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.7357585
原典: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.7357585

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本論文はGEM-E3-ITAモデルを用い、EUのCBAMがイタリア経済・産業競争力に与える影響を、ETS無償割当廃止・国境調整・収入リサイクルの3経路に分解して分析する。CBAMのマクロ経済効果は概ね中立だが、主な調整コストはCBAM自体ではなく無償割当廃止に由来する。CBAMは炭素コストの非対称性を縮小し、一部のエネルギー集約型貿易財産業の競争力を高める。

English

Using the GEM-E3-ITA CGE model, this study decomposes CBAM's economic and competitiveness effects for Italy into three channels: ETS free-allocation phase-out, border adjustment, and revenue recycling. Aggregate effects are broadly neutral, but the main adjustment stems from removing free allocation rather than CBAM itself. CBAM partially offsets losses and strengthens several EITE industries by reducing carbon-cost asymmetries.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

EU CBAMは日本企業のEU向け輸出（鉄鋼・アルミ等）に直接影響する。無償割当廃止が主たるコスト要因という知見は、日本企業のCBAM対応・Scope3・炭素価格戦略を検討する上で示唆に富む。

In the global GX context

CBAM is a central pillar of the EU's carbon-pricing architecture and a template for emerging border-adjustment proposals globally. The decomposition showing free-allocation phase-out as the dominant cost driver refines how disclosure and transition-finance communities should model CBAM exposure.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:CBAM効果を経路別に分解するCGE手法とPCA競争力指標は、炭素価格政策の実証研究に有用な枠組みを提供する。

🏢実務担当者:EU輸出を持つ企業は、CBAMコストの主因がETS無償割当廃止である点を踏まえ、炭素コストエクスポージャーを精査すべき。

🏛政策担当者:国境調整とETS改革・収入リサイクルの組合せが産業転換を支えることを示し、炭素価格制度設計の参考になる。

📄 Abstract（原文）

This study examines the economic and competitiveness implications of the European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) for Italy using GEM-E3-ITA, a global computable general equilibrium model. The analysis decomposes the overall effect into three interconnected channels: the phase-out of free allocation under the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), the introduction of CBAM border adjustments, and the recycling of carbon-pricing revenues. Three policy scenarios capture alternative implementation pathways and varying degrees of international climate-policy convergence.To assess competitiveness beyond conventional trade indicators, a Synthetic Competitiveness Indicator (SCIC) is developed using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), combining export, productivity, and innovation performances. Results show that CBAM has broadly neutral aggregate macroeconomic effects, while generating heterogeneous impacts across sectors. The decomposition reveals that the main economic adjustment stems from the removal of free ETS allocation rather than from CBAM itself. Although CBAM only partially offsets these losses, it strengthens the competitive position of several Energy-Intensive and Trade-Exposed (EITE) industries by reducing carbon-cost asymmetries between domestic and imported products. Competitiveness improvements are driven primarily by stronger trade performance.Italy performs better than the EU average due to its diversified industrial structure, export specialization, and relatively low carbon intensity. Revenue recycling plays a complementary role by mitigating adjustment costs and supporting industrial transformation. Sensitivity test based on symmetric 50% variations in Armington elasticities confirms the robustness of the findings. Overall, the results suggest that CBAM can support sustainable industrial transformation when combined with ETS reform and effective revenue recycling.​

🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース

🔔 こうした論文の新着を逃したくない方は キーワードアラート に登録（無料・3キーワードまで）。

gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。 最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。