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気候変動緩和における植林の役割、課題、挑戦

The Role, Issues, and Challenges of Afforestation in Climate Change Mitigation (原題)

Quimei Wang, Qiang Zhu, Wei Liu, Zongqiang Chang

Forests📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-08-26#気候科学Origin: CN対象セクター: agriculture
DOI: 10.3390/f17091013
原典: https://doi.org/10.3390/f17091013

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

植林の気候緩和効果は生態的文脈に依存し、一律に冷却効果があるわけではない。既存の統合レビューは炭素隔離に偏りがちだが、本論文は生物物理・水文・撹乱・社会経済の証拠を統合し、地域別の可能性と限界を明示。将来の優先課題として、気候スマート造林、デジタル林業、永続性評価、森林バイオエコノミー、国際ガバナンスを挙げる。

English

Afforestation's climate mitigation is context-dependent and not uniformly cooling. This integrative review synthesizes biophysical, hydrological, disturbance, and socioeconomic evidence, highlighting regional potentials and limits. It identifies five future priorities: climate-smart silviculture, digital forestry, permanence accounting, sustainable bioeconomy, and international governance.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本では、森林吸収源の評価がカーボンニュートラル目標やJ-クレジット制度に直結する。本レビューは、吸収量の過大評価リスクや永続性の考慮など、国内の森林クレジット設計や企業のカーボンオフセット戦略に示唆を与える。

In the global GX context

Globally, this review informs forest-based climate mitigation strategies under the Paris Agreement and voluntary carbon markets. It cautions against overestimating afforestation's cooling effect, emphasizing permanence and disturbance risks, which is critical for credible carbon accounting and climate finance.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:森林吸収の統合的評価手法と地域別ポテンシャルの整理は、炭素会計研究の基盤となる。

🏢実務担当者:オフセット戦略や森林クレジット活用の際、リスクと限界を理解するための参考になる。

🏛政策担当者:森林吸収源の政策目標設定や国際交渉における科学的根拠として有用。

📄 Abstract（原文）

Afforestation can contribute to climate-change mitigation when tree establishment is matched to ecological context and sustained by long-term management, but its net climatic effect is not uniformly cooling. Existing syntheses often emphasize carbon sequestration while treating biophysical, hydrological, disturbance, and socioeconomic evidence separately. Here, we provide a structured integrative review. We distinguish afforestation from reforestation, natural regeneration, forest restoration, and improved management. We explicitly assess evidence from global modeling, remote sensing, meta-analyses, long-term observations, and regional case studies. Global forests cover about 4.14 billion ha in 2025, while annual net forest loss remained about 4.12 million ha yr−1 during 2015–2025. Global forests were a sink of about 3.5 ± 0.4 Pg C yr−1 in the 2010s, but this existing-forest sink should not be interpreted as an afforestation-specific removal rate. Humid tropical and subtropical regions generally have the greatest potential for net climatic cooling. In contrast, afforestation at snow-covered high latitudes may cause substantial albedo-driven warming, while water-limited regions require careful species selection and conservative planting densities. Soil carbon gains are most consistent on former croplands and other low-carbon degraded lands, but responses on carbon-rich grasslands are highly variable. Long-term benefits further depend on disturbance resilience, permanence, land competition, financing, and credible monitoring. Additionally, we identify five priorities for the future: climate-smart adaptive silviculture, digital forestry with field-calibrated uncertainty, permanence and disturbance-risk accounting, sustainable forest bioeconomy, and integrated international governance and finance.

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