直接投資・気候ガバナンス・グリーン開発：一帯一路経済圏の実証
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, CLIMATE GOVERNANCE, AND GREEN DEVELOPMENT: EVIDENCE FROM BELT AND ROAD ECONOMIES (原題)
K. M. Anwarul Islam
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
一帯一路40カ国・2006〜2025年のパネルデータを用い、FDIがグリーン開発指標に与える影響を気候ガバナンスと再生可能エネルギー移行の媒介効果を含めて分析した。気候ガバナンスが弱い国ではFDIは汚染逃避地的に作用し指標を0.63ポイント低下させるが、ガバナンス指数が約62を超えると交互作用により効果は正に転じる。FDIは再エネ比率を0.49ポイント押し上げ、間接効果+0.09が直接的な環境コストを一部相殺する。
English
Using a 40-country Belt and Road panel (2006–2025), the study tests whether climate governance moderates and renewable transition mediates FDI's effect on a Green Development Index. FDI lowers the index by 0.63 points at mean governance, but the FDI×governance interaction (0.037, p<0.01) turns positive above a governance index of ~62. FDI also raises renewable share by 0.49 points, yielding a small positive indirect effect (+0.09).
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本企業の新興国サプライチェーン投資やトランジション・ファイナンス判断において、投資先の気候ガバナンス水準が環境パフォーマンスを左右するという実証的根拠を提供する。
In the global GX context
Adds empirical support to the global debate on whether capital flows enable or undermine decarbonization, relevant to transition finance and ISSB-aligned country-level climate governance assessment in emerging markets.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:FDIと環境パフォーマンスの汚染逃避地/ハロー論争に、ガバナンス閾値と再エネ媒介経路の実証を加える。
🏢実務担当者:新興国への投資・調達判断で、投資先の気候ガバナンス水準をデューデリジェンス項目として重視する根拠になる。
🏛政策担当者:途上国への資本流入をグリーン化するには、気候法整備とガバナンス強化がFDI誘致と環境改善の両立条件となる。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Foreign direct investment (FDI) is the largest source of external finance for the developing countries that partner with the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). However, its consequences for climate action and green development remain contested: the pollution-haven view expects capital to migrate to jurisdictions with lax environmental regulation, whereas the pollution-halo view expects foreign firms to transfer cleaner technology and energy-efficiency practices. This study examines whether climate governance moderates, and the renewable energy transition mediates, the effect of FDI on green development in Belt and Road economies. It employs a balanced panel of 40 BRI partner economies over 2006–2025 (800 country-year observations) and a Green Development Index that combines CO2 intensity, energy intensity, forest cover and air-quality exposure, together with a Climate Governance Index built from governance indicators and the stock of climate laws. Panel unit-root, cointegration, ARDL/ECM, bounds, Dumitrescu–Hurlin causality, VECM/VAR, impulse-response, variance-decomposition, mediation, Durbin–Wu–Hausman and two-stage least squares procedures are applied. The results show that a one-percentage-point rise in FDI lowers the Green Development Index by 0.63 points at the mean level of climate governance, but the FDI × governance interaction (0.037, p < 0.01) turns the effect positive once the governance index exceeds about 62; the long-run FDI coefficient in the error-correction model is -2.55 with an adjustment speed of 0.20 per year, and FDI raises the renewable share by 0.49 points, yielding an indirect effect of +0.09 (bootstrap 95% CI [0.03, 0.18]). The findings suggest that FDI is a pollution haven under weak climate governance and a pollution halo under strong climate governance, and that the diffusion of renewable energy partly offsets its direct environmental costs.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.46281/bjmsr.v11i6.2956first seen 2026-10-18 04:39:52
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