Sensitivity of Coal Reserve Economic Feasibility to Price Fluctuations: A Case Study of an Open-Pit Coal Mine in East Kalimantan, Indonesia
価格変動に対する石炭埋蔵量の経済的実現可能性の感応度：インドネシア東カリマンタンの露天掘り炭鉱の事例研究 (AI 翻訳)
Arif Deswanda Cismawan, Eddy Ibrahim, Eddy Sutriyono, M. Taufik Toha, Maulana Yusuf, Rahmat Wahyudi Putra
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、インドネシアの露天掘り炭鉱を対象に、石炭価格の変動が限界石炭埋蔵量の経済的実現可能性に与える影響を評価した。割引キャッシュフロー分析と操業マージン分析を組み合わせ、限界価格を特定した。ベース価格ではプロジェクトは経済的に実行可能だが、20%の価格下落で不実行可能になることを示し、価格感応度を埋蔵量評価に統合する重要性を強調している。
English
This study evaluates the economic feasibility of marginal coal reserves under price volatility using a case study of an open-pit coal mine in Indonesia. Using discounted cash flow and margin analysis, it identifies a critical price threshold and shows that a 20% price decline makes the project infeasible. The findings highlight the need to integrate price sensitivity into reserve evaluation and mine planning.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本のGX政策では石炭火力の段階的削減が進む中、本論文は石炭資産の経済的リスク評価の手法を提供する。日本の投資家や金融機関が海外炭鉱投資のリスク評価を行う際の参考になる。
In the global GX context
Globally, this paper contributes to the discourse on stranded assets and transition risk in fossil fuel investments. It provides a practical framework for assessing the economic viability of coal reserves under price uncertainty, relevant for investors and policymakers addressing climate-related financial risks.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a framework for integrating price sensitivity into reserve classification, useful for energy transition and stranded asset research.
🏢実務担当者:Offers a decision-support tool for mining companies and investors to assess coal reserve feasibility under price volatility.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the economic fragility of coal assets, informing policies on just transition and fossil fuel phase-out.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Coal price volatility is one of the most important factors affecting the economic feasibility of mining operations, particularly marginal coal reserves that are highly sensitive to changes in cost and revenue. This study evaluates the economic feasibility of marginal coal reserves under different coal price scenarios using a case study from an open-pit coal mine in East Kalimantan, Indonesia. The analysis applies a simplified discounted cash flow framework combined with operating margin analysis, critical price determination, and price sensitivity assessment. The results show that, at a base coal price of USD 43,97/ton, the project remains economically feasible, with an operating margin of USD 6,05/ton and a net present value of USD 82,91 million. However, a 20% decline in coal price results in a negative margin of USD 2,74/ton, making the project no longer economically feasible. The critical price was identified at USD 37,92/ton, representing the break-even threshold. The sensitivity analysis further demonstrates that the economic status of marginal coal reserves is dynamic and can shift from feasible to marginal or not feasible depending on market conditions. These findings highlight the importance of integrating price sensitivity into reserve evaluation and mine planning. The proposed framework provides a practical decision-support approach for reserve classification, production planning, and resource optimization under uncertain economic conditions. The main contribution of this study is the development of a practical techno-economic classification framework that links coal price variation with reserve feasibility status through the integration of critical price, operating margin, and break-even stripping ratio. This framework allows marginal reserves to be evaluated as dynamic economic entities rather than as fixed reserve categories under a single base-case price assumption.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.58291/ijec.v5i1.547first seen 2026-06-06 04:40:13 · last seen 2026-06-17 07:04:47
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