パキスタンの将来の家庭用エネルギー消費はどうなるか？農村部と都市部の世帯におけるエネルギー転換による先進エネルギー源へのアクセス課題
What will future household energy consumption in Pakistan look like? Challenges in accessing advanced energy sources due to the energy transition in rural and urban households (原題)
Muhammad Saad Moeen, Tatsuya Hanaoka
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
パキスタンの家庭部門を対象に、1999〜2020年の時系列最終用途エネルギー収支表（EBT）を農村・都市別に構築し、2060年までBAUシナリオで予測した。農村は伝統的バイオマス、都市はガス・電力が主体で、調理が消費の75%超を占める。都市の先進エネルギー消費は経済成長・都市化・価格と強く相関するが農村では弱く、転換速度は都市が農村の2倍と予測される。世帯エネルギー消費は2020年の1896PJから2060年に5680PJへ3倍超となる見通し。
English
This study builds a time-series end-use energy balance table for rural and urban households in Pakistan from 1999–2020 and forecasts to 2060 under BAU. Rural households rely on traditional biomass while urban ones use gas and electricity; cooking exceeds 75% of residential consumption. Urban advanced-energy use correlates strongly with socioeconomic factors, but weakly in rural areas, and the transition is projected to be twice as fast in cities. Total household energy consumption is expected to more than triple from 1,896 PJ in 2020 to 5,680 PJ in 2060.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本企業にとって直接の事業影響は限定的だが、新興国における家庭部門のエネルギー転換とインフラ整備の課題は、日本が支援するODAや脱炭素技術輸出の文脈で参考になる。また、都市・農村格差を考慮したエネルギーアクセス政策は、日本のエネルギー政策対話においても示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This paper adds to global energy transition scholarship by providing granular, long-term household energy balance data for a developing country, highlighting the rural-urban divide in access to modern energy. It underscores the challenge of achieving a just transition and informs international climate finance and SDG7 discussions, though it does not directly engage with corporate disclosure frameworks like TCFD or ISSB.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a replicable methodology for constructing long-term household energy balance tables and forecasting energy transitions in developing countries.
🏢実務担当者:Offers insights into future energy demand patterns in emerging markets, useful for market assessment and infrastructure investment planning.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the need for targeted policies to bridge the rural-urban energy access gap and manage rising household energy consumption.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Clean energy transition in Pakistan’s residential sector is crucial, as one-third of energy consumption remains based on biomass fuel. This study develops a time-series end-use energy balance table (EBT) for rural and urban households in Pakistan for each service type from 1999 to 2020. We also forecast future household EBT up to 2060 under the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. We find that total per capita energy consumption (PEC) in 2020 was 1.09 times larger than in 1999, while rural total PEC remained 1.39–1.54 times higher than in urban areas throughout the same period. Rural households primarily use traditional biomass fuels, whereas urban households predominantly consume gas and electricity. Cooking accounts for over 75% of total residential energy consumption. The PEC of advanced energy in urban areas is highly correlated with socioeconomic factors such as economic growth, urbanization, and energy prices; however, this correlation is weaker in rural areas. The energy transition is expected to be twice as fast in urban areas as in rural areas by 2060. We find that the gap in total PEC between rural and urban areas will narrow from 1.39 times in 2020 to 1.10 times by 2060, but access to advanced energy sources will still be limited in rural areas. Total household energy consumption is expected to be more than triple from 1896 petajoules (PJ) in 2020 to 5,680 PJ in 2060. The provision of electricity and gas supply remains a policy challenge to achieve energy transition, even in the BAU scenario by 2060.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2026.109621first seen 2026-09-10 04:36:26
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